Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 5 percentage points?
chance of YES14%
-1.0pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
9–32%
24h volume
15.2K
Open interest
95.6K
Bid / ask
14¢ / 15¢
Odds and volume
daily, 120 daysLine: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.
Order book
top 5| Bid | Size | Ask | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.0¢ | 4,712 | 15.0¢ | 37 |
| 13.0¢ | 35 | 16.0¢ | 2,018 |
| 12.0¢ | 1,753 | 17.0¢ | 392 |
| 11.0¢ | 1,000 | 19.0¢ | 0 |
| 10.0¢ | 1,000 | 20.0¢ | 200 |
Mid 14.5¢ · spread 1.0¢
Open on Kalshi
We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.
Other outcomes in this event
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts38%853
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts24%3.9K
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts10%8.6K
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts6%301
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts2%696
Ken Paxton, 13+ pts2%2.0K
Recent large orders
≥ $1K · 14 days| When | Side | Price | Contracts | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | 20¢ | 5,000 | $1K | |
| NO | 89¢ | 1,278 | $1K | |
| NO | 87¢ | 3,968 | $3K | |
| NO | 88¢ | 1,261 | $1K | |
| NO | 91¢ | 8,675 | $8K | |
| NO | 89¢ | 3,220 | $3K | |
| NO | 85¢ | 1,404 | $1K | |
| NO | 88¢ | 2,988 | $3K | |
| NO | 90¢ | 1,165 | $1K | |
| NO | 88¢ | 2,270 | $2K |
Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.