K KalshiWeather & Climate

Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.0°C and 2.4°C?

Settles Aug 15, 2027 (288d) All outcomes: What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?

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Preview
chance of YES6% -2.0pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
1–15%
30d -50 pts · 7d +0 pts
24h volume
286
$1 contracts
Open interest
9.6K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
$1K
0% on YES

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

2.5°C to 2.9°C64%7
At least 3.0°C31%2.3K
Below 1.5°C2%—
1.5°C to 1.9°C2%—

Recent large orders

≥ $1K · 14 days
WhenSidePriceContractsSize
NO94¢ 1,368$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.