K KalshiWeather & Climate

Will the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season be between 2.5°C and 2.9°C?

Settles Aug 15, 2027 (288d) All outcomes: What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?

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chance of YES64% -1.0pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
21–80%
30d +38 pts · 7d +0 pts
24h volume
7
$1 contracts
Open interest
10.3K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
$1K
100% on YES

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

At least 3.0°C31%2.3K
2.0°C to 2.4°C6%286
Below 1.5°C2%—
1.5°C to 1.9°C2%—

Recent large orders

≥ $1K · 14 days
WhenSidePriceContractsSize
YES45¢ 2,310$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.