What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 40%, implying a 40% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 15, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Climate and Weather

At least 3.0°C

Closes Aug 15, 2027 (401d) 24h volume 114 Open interest 3.2K Event What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?

40%

implied YES probability

-1.0pp 24h

Last 9 days · High 41% · Low 9% · 7d +192.9pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.