What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketMarkets & Companies

Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: 3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

chance of YES4%

Price range (120d)

0–6%

30d +2140 pts · 7d +2700 pts

24h volume

$2.3K

USDC traded

Open interest

$19.1K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Related stocks

AMZN

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Microsoft72%$1.2K

Alphabet14%$5.8K

NVIDIA6%$243

Apple4%$383

SpaceX1%$240

How it settles

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.

Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

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Odds and volume

Related stocks

Other outcomes in this event

How it settles

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