What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 74%, implying a 74% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketMarkets & Companies

Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: 3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

chance of YES74% +11.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

14–62%

30d +162 pts · 7d +37 pts

24h volume

$1.2K

USDC traded

Open interest

$18.7K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Related stocks

MSFT

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Alphabet12%$6.5K

NVIDIA6%$243

Amazon4%$2.3K

Apple4%$383

SpaceX1%$240

How it settles

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.

Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Embed these odds

Odds and volume

Related stocks

Other outcomes in this event

How it settles

Related news