Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market is asking whether Kharg Island will no longer be under Iranian control by June 30, 2026. The current price implies a 0% probability of this event occurring, suggesting that the market does not currently expect Iran to relinquish control over the island by the specified deadline. Known facts informing the current price include the ongoing situation on Kharg Island and any relevant diplomatic or military developments. A change in the likelihood of Iranian control being relinquished would likely impact the price, with an increase in the probability of "Yes" driving the price up and a decrease driving it down.