Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market for Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control by July 31 is currently priced at 0.00, indicating a perceived probability of zero. This suggests that market participants do not foresee any change in the island's status by the specified deadline. The current price is informed by the fact that Iran has historically maintained control over Kharg Island, and there are no known developments or events that would suggest a sudden shift in control. Any changes to this assessment could include significant political or military developments in the region, such as a peace agreement or a military operation that results in Iranian withdrawal from the island.