Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market is asking whether Kharg Island will no longer be under Iranian control by June 24, 2026. The current price of 0.00 implies a perceived probability of zero that this event will occur. Known facts informing the current price are the existing circumstances surrounding Kharg Island's control, with Iran currently exercising primary governmental or military control over the island. Any changes to these circumstances, such as a shift in international relations or a change in the balance of power on the ground, could potentially impact the market's perception of the likelihood that Kharg Island will no longer be under Iranian control by June 24.