Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market for Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control by August 31 is currently priced at 0.06, indicating a 6% probability of this event occurring. This price reflects known facts about the current situation on the island, including Iran's historical control and any ongoing tensions or military activities in the region. The market is asking whether Iran will relinquish its primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island by the specified deadline. A change in the price would likely be driven by new developments that impact the likelihood of this event occurring, such as shifts in regional politics or military operations.