P PolymarketPolitics & Elections

Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

Settles Nov 04, 2026 (3d) All outcomes: Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms? Polls & election odds

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Theme
Preview
chance of YES73% +3.4pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
62–73%
· 7d +7 pts
24h volume
$4.0K
USDC traded
Open interest
$36.3K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

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We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate27%$7.7K
Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate0%$100
Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate0%$200

How it settles

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Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.