CNCKW Coincheck Group N.V. Warrant expiring 12/10/2029
XNASStock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Employees
- 303
- List Date
- 2024-12-11
- CIK
- 0001913847
- Homepage
- https://www.coincheckgroup.com
Coincheck Group NV is mainly engaged in providing end-to-end crypto asset exchange services by offering customers multi-cryptocurrency Marketplace and Exchange platforms with a deep pool of liquidity for trading crypto assets through user-friendly applications. The Company offers a multi-cryptocurrency marketplace where, after securing matching or offsetting customer orders or otherwise verifying sufficient liquidity, it acts as the seller or buyer against customers' executed orders. Its offerings include trade execution, custody, staking, asset management services, and ongoing development in …
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -- | -14.87% | -26.24% | -20.55% |
| Feb | -- | -39.33% | 24.16% | -7.58% |
| Mar | -- | -38.29% | -32.03% | -35.16% |
| Apr | -- | 124.36% | -5.94% | 59.21% |
| May | -- | -22.79% | 26.20% | 1.71% |
| Jun | -- | -20.91% | 13.30% | -3.80% |
| Jul | -- | -38.13% | 49.20% | 5.54% |
| Aug | -- | 11.83% | -33.33% | -10.75% |
| Sep | -- | -15.28% | -41.12% | -28.20% |
| Oct | -- | -15.00% | -11.50%* | -13.25% |
| Nov | -- | -14.25% | -- | -14.25% |
| Dec | -38.69% | -76.49% | -- | -57.59% |
| Total | -38.69% | -95.61% | -56.61% | -63.64% |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report: CNCKW
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: NEUTRAL (Confidence Level: 6/10)
Key Drivers:
- Technical indicators suggest a neutral-to-bullish trend, with the MACD signal line crossing above the zero line, indicating bullish momentum.
- RSI is overbought, but not extremely so, indicating potential for mean reversion.
- Volume trends are mixed, with OBV and volume rate of change suggesting potential reversal.
Primary Risks:
- Overbought RSI may lead to a correction or consolidation phase.
- Lack of recent news headlines may indicate reduced market interest or uncertainty.
Investment Thesis:
CNCKW appears to be in a range-bound environment, with the possibility of a breakout above the upper Bollinger Band ($0.28) or a mean reversion event bringing prices back down towards the lower band ($0.13). The lack of recent news headlines may reduce market volatility and make it more challenging for traders to generate returns.
Recent News Sentiment Impact:
No recent news headlines available, which reduces the potential impact on sentiment.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction:
- Short-term (1-4 weeks): Bullish
- Medium-term (1-3 months): Neutral
- Long-term (3-12 months): Bullish
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Key price levels:
- Lower Bollinger Band ($0.13)
- Upper Bollinger Band ($0.28)
- SMA 20 ($0.21)
- Resistance zones:
- EMA 12 ($0.23)
- EMA 26 ($0.21)
Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: Neutral (65.81), but trending higher.
- MACD signal line crossover: Bullish.
- Bollinger Bands position: Overbought.
Volume Analysis:
- Volume trends:
- OBV: Negative (-221301.00)
- Volume rate of change: Positive (4623.50%)
- Institutional interest signals: Mixed, with a slight increase in volume rate of change.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary:
No recent news headlines available.
Sentiment Assessment:
Aggregate sentiment is neutral, as there are no recent news headlines to drive market sentiment.
Catalyst Identification:
No upcoming events or catalysts announced.
Market Narrative:
The lack of recent news headlines and mixed volume trends may indicate a consolidation phase or a pause in the current trend. The MACD signal line crossover remains bullish, but the RSI overbought reading suggests potential for mean reversion.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Risk Interpretation:
- Beta: 0.89 (moderate volatility relative to SPY)
- Alpha: 2.44 (positive absolute return)
- Correlation: 0.03 (low correlation with SPY)
Volatility Regime:
Current volatility levels are moderate, similar to historical averages.
Options Market Signals:
No options data available for analysis.
Downside Protection:
Support levels: + Lower Bollinger Band ($0.13) + SMA 20 ($0.21)
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance:
CNCKW is not a member of any specific sector, so sector performance does not apply.
Institutional Activity:
Mixed institutional interest signals, with a slight increase in volume rate of change.
Correlation Analysis:
Low correlation with SPY (0.03), indicating potential for independent price movement.
Relative Valuation:
CNCKW appears to be trading within its historical range, suggesting fair valuation relative to peers.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Lower Bollinger Band ($0.13)
- Upper Bollinger Band ($0.28)
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- SMA 20 ($0.21) - potential breakout level
- EMA 12 ($0.23) - potential resistance level
Time-Sensitive Catalysts:
No upcoming events or catalysts announced.
Risk Management:
Stop-loss levels: + Lower Bollinger Band ($0.13) + SMA 20 ($0.21)
Position sizing considerations: traders may want to consider reducing position size due to the lack of recent news headlines and mixed volume trends.
CNCKW Options Activity & IV Rank
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
Risk Metrics
Analysis Details
Data Points: 144
Period: 252 trading days
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
CNCKW Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-06-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millennium Management LLC Custodian | $39.06K | 76.50% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | ANGELO GORDON & CO., L.P. | $12.00K | 23.50% | 2025-12-31 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
CNCKW Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-05-18| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Pascal St.-Jean | CEO and President | Award (A) | +711,216 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-22 | Yo Nakagawa | Chief Planning Officer | Exer (M) | +5,839 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-22 | Satoshi Hasuo | Chief Stakeholder Officer | Exer (M) | +2,919 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-22 | Marc J Stone | Chief Legal Officer | Exer (M) | +2,576 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-22 | Toshihiko Katsuya | Chief Operating Officer | Exer (M) | +1,701 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-04-22 | Jason Sandberg | Chief Financial Officer | Exer (M) | +2,919 | — | EDGAR |
CNCKW Insider Holdings
6 insiders · @ $0.19| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pascal St.-Jean | CEO and President | 711,216 | $138.5K | $0 | 1 | 2026-05-18 |
| 2 | Jason Sandberg | Chief Financial Officer | 62,919 | $12.3K | $0 | 1 | 2026-04-22 |
| 3 | Toshihiko Katsuya | Chief Operating Officer | 19,217 | $3.7K | $0 | 1 | 2026-04-22 |
| 4 | Yo Nakagawa | Chief Planning Officer | 5,839 | $1.1K | $0 | 1 | 2026-04-22 |
| 5 | Satoshi Hasuo | Chief Stakeholder Officer | 2,919 | $568 | $0 | 1 | 2026-04-22 |
| 6 | Marc J Stone | Chief Legal Officer | 2,576 | $502 | $0 | 1 | 2026-04-22 |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.