Gerdau S.A.(GGB)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $3.05 – $5.18
- YTD
- +27.12%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 34.27
- Straddle Price
- $0.70
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.50
- Market Cap
- $9.4B
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.96% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.94 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.65% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.66% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +84.9pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Quality Score | 0/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $4.82 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $4.92 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 265.6% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.0B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $2.33 | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/B | n/a | 0% | median 2.5× · 3 peers |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | median 1.6× · 3 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $4.82 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $9.4B
Gerdau SA produces steel and steel products. The company operates in civil construction, agriculture, automotive, iron ore, exports, research and development, and home steel products sectors. It offers products such as Semi-finished products (Billets, Blooms and Slabs), Special bar quality, Common Long Rolled Products, Dawn products, Merchant bar, Beams, Rebar, Piling, Iron Ore and Others. The company's geographical segment includes Brazil Segment; North America Segment; and South America Segment. It derives the majority of its revenue from the Brazil Operations segment, which includes the lon…
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.34% | 23 |
| Feb | +0.35% | 23 |
| Mar | +0.93% | 23 |
| Apr | +3.21% | 23 |
| May | -1.50% | 23 |
| Jun | +0.75% | 23 |
| Jul | +5.65% | 23 |
| Aug | -1.73% | 23 |
| Sep | -0.97% | 23 |
| Oct | +0.76% | 22 |
| Nov | +3.74% | 22 |
| Dec | +0.96% | 22 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report
Executive Summary
Overall assessment: BULLISH (Confidence level: 7/10)
Key drivers:
- Technical momentum signals align with recent positive news sentiment
- Volatility is high, indicating potential for further price movements
- Options market pricing a $0.45 move by expiration, suggesting bullish expectations
Primary risks:
- High volatility may lead to significant price swings
- Earnings data not available, increasing uncertainty around future performance
Investment thesis: GGB's technical momentum and options market signals indicate a potential upside move, driven by positive news sentiment and sustainable steel industry growth. However, high volatility poses a risk that could impact investment returns.
Recent news sentiment impact: The recent news headlines have had a neutral to positive impact on the stock price, with only one headline indicating a clear bullish signal (Steel Stock Up 47% in a Year...).
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction:
- Short-term: Bullish
- Medium-term: Neutral
- Long-term: Bullish
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Upper Bollinger Band: $5.30
- Middle Band: $4.73
- Lower Band: $4.17
- Key price levels from moving averages:
- SMA 20: $4.73
- EMA 12: $4.93
Momentum Signals:
- RSI (14): 58.60 (neutral)
- MACD: Bullish signal with a histogram of 0.06
- Stochastic %K and %D: Both above their respective levels, indicating bullish momentum
Volume Analysis:
- Volume SMA 20: 11287042.60
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): 259098573.69
- Volume Rate of Change: -44.77%
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary:
- Neutral (Benzinga, 2026-02-23)
- Positive (The Motley Fool, 2026-02-11)
- Neutral (The Motley Fool, 2026-01-23)
- Neutral (The Motley Fool, 2025-11-20)
- Neutral (Benzinga, 2025-03-14)
- Neutral (GlobeNewswire Inc., 2024-08-26)
Sentiment Assessment: The overall sentiment is neutral to positive, with only one headline indicating a clear bullish signal.
Catalyst Identification:
- No specific catalysts identified
Market Narrative:
The recent news headlines have had a neutral to positive impact on the stock price, aligning with the technical momentum signals. However, the market narrative remains uncertain due to the lack of earnings data and high volatility.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Risk Interpretation: High risk relative to market (beta >1.2)
Volatility Regime:
- Current vs historical volatility levels: Higher than historical average
- IV Rank: 28.8% (Medium)
- Current IV: 80.7%
Options Market Signals:
- IV rank and current IV indicate medium-high volatility
- Put/call ratios suggest bullish sentiment
Downside Protection:
- Support levels:
- SMA 20: $4.73
- EMA 12: $4.93
- Risk management considerations: Stop-loss levels should be set below these support levels to manage potential losses.
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: The steel sector has been performing relatively well, with GGB being a key player in this industry.
Institutional Activity:
- Volume patterns suggest institutional interest
Correlation Analysis: GGB's stock moves are highly correlated with the market (R-squared interpretation).
Relative Valuation: GGB is positioned within its trading range, indicating potential for further price movements.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Support levels:
- SMA 20: $4.73
- EMA 12: $4.93
- Resistance levels:
- Upper Bollinger Band: $5.30
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- No specific breakout or breakdown levels identified
Time-Sensitive Catalysts:
- No specific catalysts identified
Risk Management:
- Stop-loss levels should be set below support levels to manage potential losses.
- Position sizing considerations: investors should consider their risk tolerance and adjust their position size accordingly.
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of GGB's stock, incorporating technical indicators, options metrics, beta analysis, market data, and recent news headlines. The overall assessment is BULLISH, with key drivers including positive momentum signals and options market pricing a $0.45 move by expiration. However, high volatility poses a risk that could impact investment returns. Investors should consider their risk tolerance and adjust their position size accordingly.
- IV Rank (30D)
- 34.27
- IV Rank (7D)
- 34.27
- Avg IV
- 89.3%
- Straddle (30D)
- $0.70
- Straddle (7D)
- $0.70
- P/C Volume
- 0.50
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 1.25
- Correlation (SPY)
- 45.4%
- R²
- 0.21
- Ann. Volatility
- 35.8%
- SPY Volatility
- 13.0%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $936.07K | 81.19% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $78.78K | 6.83% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $75.55K | 6.55% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $62.51K | 5.42% | 2025-09-30 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $203.21K | 100.00% | 2026-06-30 |
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Rafael Gamboa Lopes | Sell (S) | −51,800 | $5.09 | -$263.7K | EDGAR | |
| 2026-08-27 | Marcos Eduardo Faraco Wahrhaftig | Award (A) | — | — | EDGAR | ||
| 2026-08-14 | Marcos Zilles Mattiello | Sell (S) | −10,387 | $5.11 | -$53.1K | EDGAR | |
| 2026-08-12 | Andre Bier Gerdau Johannpeter | Sell (S) | −99,200 | $4.94 | -$490.0K | EDGAR | |
| 2026-08-10 | Rafael Dorneles Japur | Sell (S) | −10,000 | $5.10 | -$51.0K | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-15 | Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha | CEO and Board Member | Buy (P) | +165,224 | $4.73 | $781.5K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-03 | Chia Yuan Wang | Sell (S) | −30,935 | $4.49 | -$138.9K | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-03 | Mauricio Metz | Sell (S) | −7,000 | $4.85 | -$34.0K | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-28 | Mauricio Metz | Sell (S) | −5,000 | $4.70 | -$23.5K | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-26 | Rafael Dorneles Japur | Sell (S) | −5,000 | $4.75 | -$23.8K | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-22 | Cesar Obino da Rosa Peres | Officer | Sell (S) | −8,000 | $4.60 | -$36.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-15 | Mauricio Metz | Sell (S) | −5,000 | $4.85 | -$24.2K | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-12 | Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha | CEO and Board Member | Mixed | −80 | $4.87 | -$2.11M | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-08 | Mauricio Metz | Sell (S) | −2,000 | $4.69 | -$9.4K | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-07 | Chia Yuan Wang | Sell (S) | −40,000 | $4.75 | -$190.0K | EDGAR |
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guilherme Chagas Gerdau Johannpeter | 702,952,615 | $3.38B | -$563.3K | 2 | 2026-03-25 | |
| 2 | Andre Bier Gerdau Johannpeter | 248,662 | $1.19M | -$490.0K | 1 | 2026-08-12 | |
| 3 | Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha | CEO and Board Member | 165,224 | $793.9K | -$2.13M | 4 | 2026-06-15 |
| 4 | Rafael Dorneles Japur | 86,967 | $417.9K | -$74.8K | 2 | 2026-08-10 | |
| 5 | Rafael Gamboa Lopes | 83,399 | $400.7K | -$263.7K | 1 | 2026-09-21 | |
| 6 | Mauricio Metz | 22,536 | $108.3K | -$95.3K | 5 | 2026-06-03 | |
| 7 | Marcos Zilles Mattiello | 8,997 | $43.2K | -$53.1K | 1 | 2026-08-14 | |
| 8 | Chia Yuan Wang | 882 | $4.2K | -$660.9K | 5 | 2026-06-03 | |
| 9 | Cesar Obino da Rosa Peres | Officer | 8 | $38 | -$36.8K | 1 | 2026-05-22 |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.