KOLD ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas
ARCX 21.71 DelayedStock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $13.44 – $49.47
- YTD
- -41.77%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 17.05
- Straddle Price
- $5.62
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.03
- Industry (SIC)
- COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS (6221)
- Exchange
- ARCX
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.09% | 15 |
| Feb | +6.01% | 15 |
| Mar | +2.06% | 15 |
| Apr | -8.14% | 15 |
| May | +1.37% | 15 |
| Jun | -0.43% | 15 |
| Jul | +1.35% | 15 |
| Aug | -5.66% | 15 |
| Sep | +0.64% | 15 |
| Oct | +1.18% | 16 |
| Nov | -0.55% | 15 |
| Dec | +22.19% | 15 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: BEARISH (Confidence Level: 7/10)
Key Drivers:
- Technical indicators suggest a downtrend, with MACD indicating bearish momentum
- Recent news sentiment is neutral, but no recent news available to impact the analysis
- Risk metrics show negative beta, suggesting the stock moves opposite to market
Primary Risks:
- Continued downward pressure from technical indicators and risk metrics
- Lack of positive news or catalysts to reverse the downtrend
Investment Thesis:
KOLD's bearish momentum is likely to continue in the short-term, driven by technical indicators. However, the stock's negative beta may present opportunities for contrarian investors seeking a counter-trend play.
Recent News Sentiment Impact:
Neutral sentiment due to lack of recent news headlines.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction: Short-term (1-4 weeks): Downtrend; Medium-term (1-3 months): Downtrend; Long-term (3-12 months): Neutral
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Lower Bollinger Band: $30.66
- Lower SMA 200: $29.08
- Support level: $35.63 (SMA 50)
Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: Neutral (53.73)
- MACD signal: Bearish momentum (-0.40 / Signal: -0.14)
- Bollinger Bands position: Squeeze
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: No recent news headlines available.
Sentiment Assessment: Neutral sentiment due to lack of recent news.
Catalyst Identification: None available.
Market Narrative: The neutral market narrative is not providing any significant catalysts for KOLD's price movement.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Beta Interpretation: Negative beta (-0.54), suggesting the stock moves opposite to market.
Volatility Regime: High volatility (1.07).
Options Market Signals:
- IV rank: 3.5% (Low)
- Current IV: 80.0%
- Expected Move: $6.53 (28 DTE)
- Volume flow: 215 calls vs 98 puts
- Open interest: 540 calls vs 228 puts
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: Neutral performance within the sector.
Institutional Activity: Low institutional activity, suggesting limited participation in the market.
Correlation Analysis: KOLD's negative beta indicates it moves opposite to market (R-squared interpretation).
Relative Valuation: The stock is trading at a discount relative to its peers and the broader market.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Support: $35.63 (SMA 50)
- Resistance: $40.72 (Upper Bollinger Band)
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- Breakout level: $40.72 (Upper Bollinger Band)
- Breakdown level: $30.66 (Lower Bollinger Band)
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: None available.
Risk Management:
- Stop-loss levels: $35.63 (SMA 50) and $30.66 (Lower Bollinger Band)
- Position sizing considerations: Adjust position size based on market volatility and risk tolerance.
This comprehensive analysis provides a structured report on KOLD's stock performance, highlighting the key drivers, primary risks, investment thesis, recent news sentiment impact, and technical indicators. The report concludes that KOLD is likely to continue its downtrend in the short-term, driven by technical indicators and risk metrics.
- IV Rank (30D)
- 17.05
- IV Rank (7D)
- 67.41
- Avg IV
- 116.2%
- Straddle (30D)
- $5.62
- Straddle (7D)
- $2.85
- P/C Volume
- 0.03
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 1.33
- Correlation (SPY)
- 15.6%
- R²
- 0.02
- Ann. Volatility
- 110.4%
- SPY Volatility
- 13.0%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $26.08M | 47.48% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $10.78M | 19.63% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $9.20M | 16.74% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $8.55M | 15.57% | 2025-09-30 |
| 5 | SIG BROKERAGE, LP | $317.10K | 0.58% | 2026-06-30 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $11.82M | 45.00% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $5.82M | 22.15% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $5.32M | 20.24% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $3.31M | 12.61% | 2025-09-30 |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.