OKLL Defiance Daily Target 2x Long OKLO ETF
ETF 8.94 DelayedETF quote, holdings, sector allocation, technicals, and options analytics. Fibonacci levels
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $8.57 – $849.78
- YTD
- -90.85%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 47.31
- Straddle Price
- $1.73
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.31
Defiance Daily Target 2x Long OKLO ETF (OKLL) ETF
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Inception
- 2025-06-23
- Has Options
- Yes
| Symbol | Name | Weight % | Asset Class | Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | TREASURY BILL | 16.50% | Debt | US |
| — | First American Government Obli | 6.54% | Short-term investment | US |
| — | N/A | 1.65% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | N/A | 1.50% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | N/A | 0.42% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | N/A | 0.37% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | N/A | -1.06% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | N/A | -1.17% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| Category | Weight | Value | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasury | 16.50% | $967864 | 1 |
| Short-term investment | 6.54% | $383484 | 1 |
| Derivative (equity) | 1.71% | $100467 | 6 |
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +5.82% | 1 |
| Feb | -41.87% | 1 |
| Mar | -36.45% | 1 |
| Apr | +79.91% | 1 |
| May | -20.49% | 1 |
| Jun | -25.82% | 2 |
| Jul | +13.24% | 2 |
| Aug | -2.12% | 2 |
| Sep | +52.93% | 2 |
| Oct | +7.26% | 2 |
| Nov | -57.66% | 1 |
| Dec | -41.70% | 1 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report: OKLL
Executive Summary
- Overall Assessment: BEARISH with confidence level 6/10
- Key Drivers and Primary Risks: High volatility, bearish momentum signals, technical resistance, and negative correlation with the market.
- Investment Thesis: Short-term uncertainty due to high volatility, potential for a retracement or consolidation phase before resuming the downtrend. Long-term concerns persist regarding the stock's high beta and negative correlation with the market.
- Recent News Sentiment Impact: No recent news available, focusing on technical analysis.
Technical Analysis
- Trend Direction: Short-term BEARISH, Medium-term NEUTRAL, Long-term BEARISH
- Support/Resistance Levels:
- SMA 20: $2.88 (resistance)
- EMA 12: $2.63 (support)
- Upper Bollinger Band: $3.63 (resistance)
- Momentum Signals:
- RSI: 39.44 (neutral)
- MACD: -0.31 / Signal: -0.00 / Histogram: -0.31 (bearish)
- Bollinger Bands: neutral
- Volume Analysis: Low volume, institutional selling, and negative sentiment.
News & Sentiment Analysis
- Recent Headlines Summary: No recent news available.
- Sentiment Assessment: Neutral to bearish due to lack of positive news and mixed technical signals.
- Catalyst Identification: No imminent catalysts, focusing on technical analysis.
- Market Narrative: Technical resistance and high volatility are the primary concerns.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
- Beta Interpretation: High risk relative to market (beta > 7.99).
- Volatility Regime: High current vs historical volatility levels.
- Options Market Signals:
- IV Rank: 16.7% (Low)
- Current IV: 219.2%
- Expected Move: $0.50
- Unusual activity: institutional selling and put buying
- Downside Protection: Support levels at SMA 20 and EMA 12.
Market Context & Positioning
- Sector Performance: OKLL underperforms the sector.
- Institutional Activity: Institutional selling and negative sentiment.
- Correlation Analysis: High negative correlation with market (R-squared interpretation).
- Relative Valuation: Overvalued within trading range.
Key Levels & Action Items
- Critical Price Levels:
- SMA 20: $2.88 (resistance)
- EMA 12: $2.63 (support)
- Breakout/Breakdown Levels: Upper Bollinger Band: $3.63 (resistance).
- Time-Sensitive Catalysts: None.
- Risk Management:
- Stop-loss levels: below SMA 20
- Position sizing considerations: cautious approach due to high volatility.
By analyzing the data, we conclude that OKLL is in a bearish trend with high volatility, which increases the risk. The stock's technical indicators suggest resistance at SMA 20 and EMA 12, while momentum signals are bearish. News sentiment is neutral to bearish due to lack of positive news. We recommend caution when considering positions in OKLL, focusing on downside protection and a potential retracement or consolidation phase before resuming the downtrend.
- IV Rank (30D)
- 47.31
- IV Rank (7D)
- 47.31
- Avg IV
- 379.1%
- Straddle (30D)
- $1.73
- Straddle (7D)
- $1.73
- P/C Volume
- 0.31
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 7.67
- Correlation (SPY)
- 52.7%
- R²
- 0.28
- Ann. Volatility
- 189.4%
- SPY Volatility
- 13.0%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
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