XBiotech Inc(XBIT)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
Snapshot
$2.35
- 52-Week Range
- $2.09 – $3.61
- YTD
- -1.47%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 24.92
- Straddle Price
- $0.43
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.53
- Market Cap
- $0.1B
Fair Value
+50.0% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.53% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.03% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 10.01% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +228.1pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-0.0B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -29.8% |
| Book / Price | 190.1% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Debt / Equity | 0.00 |
| Quality Score | 1/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $2.44 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $2.40 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 297.2% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.1B |
| Market Cap | $0B |
Peers used for multiples: ABT, PFE, REGN, TEVA
(SIC-code peers; ETF co-membership was sector-incoherent)
Blended Fair Value
$4.46
Current Price
$2.34
Deviation
+50.0%
Forward-Return Rank
LONG
gates ✓
?
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | +3.5% | +1.99 | +2.55 | 99.5% | ACTIVE |
| 42d | +7.8% | +2.89 | +3.00 | 99.9% | ACTIVE |
| 63d | +2.4% | +1.31 | +2.21 | 96.9% | ACTIVE |
Expected α = forward-return point estimate vs SPY (e.g., +7.5% means the predictor expects this stock to outperform SPY by 7.5% over that horizon).
For SHORT direction the model uses a different ranking metric (conviction-weighted deviation, not the LGBM prediction); Expected α is shown for reference.
⚠ flags rows where Expected α disagrees with the FV direction — two independent signals are in conflict; conviction is low even if rank looks extreme.
Forward-Return Rank. A proprietary ensemble of a machine-learning forward-return model and a conviction-weighted fundamental score, ranked cross-sectionally each day across the S&P 500 (and broader universes on the screener). Each stock is scored at three horizons (21/42/63 trading days). "Active" = top/bottom 5% AND all risk filters pass. Backtested mean alpha vs SPY on active picks: 21d LONG +13.4%, 63d +34.9% (S&P 500, walk-forward). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Value vs momentum conflict ⚠. The "FV direction" (long/short) comes from the fundamentals-based engine — price vs intrinsic value. The "Expected α" comes from a separate machine-learning predictor trained on ~12 features (sector, options-implied move, beta, institutional flow, etc.). Sometimes the two disagree: a stock is overvalued by fundamentals but the predictor expects it to keep outperforming (sector or momentum tailwinds). When all 3 horizons disagree, treat the direction signal as low-conviction — neither model is strongly recommending a position.
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | median 22.1× · 4 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 12.8× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/B | $11.05 | 23% | median 2.5× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | median 2.9× · 4 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $2.44 | 77% | stability 64% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
As of 2026-06-12 · updated 2026-06-12 20:59:55.687000
Info
- Industry (SIC)
- PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (2834)
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $0.1B
XBiotech Inc is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers and develops True Human monoclonal antibodies derived from human donors to replicate the human immune response in the treatment of various diseases. It has developed a pipeline of product candidates using True Human antibodies targeting both inflammatory and infectious diseases. The company's developement pipeline comprises: Natrunix, an antibody targeting IL-1a in oncology (pancreatic cancer), a clinical stage therapeutic for Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), and several pre-clinical stage therapeutics, including: an…
Price History
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +3.88% | 6 |
| Feb | -3.79% | 6 |
| Mar | +3.65% | 6 |
| Apr | -1.80% | 6 |
| May | +1.81% | 6 |
| Jun | -3.08% | 6 |
| Jul | +4.72% | 5 |
| Aug | -8.59% | 5 |
| Sep | -5.21% | 5 |
| Oct | -0.97% | 5 |
| Nov | -9.02% | 5 |
| Dec | -9.60% | 5 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $2.40
SMA 50: $2.44
SMA 200: $2.49
Current: $2.34
EMA 12: $2.37
EMA 26: $2.40
MACD: -0.0300 | Signal: -0.0071
BEARISH
ADX (14): 22.99
WEAK TREND
+DI: 12.40
−DI: 20.09
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 38.43
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 5.71
Stoch %D: 12.25
Williams %R: -93.20
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $2.47
BB Lower: $2.32
NEUTRAL
OBV: 495,649
Vol SMA 20: 28,681
Vol ROC: -54.23%
ATR: $0.06
True Range: $0.05
HV 20: 22.7%
HV 30: 20.2%
HV 60: 24.1%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated: 2026-06-12T21:15:25.870000
Date Range: 2024-06-14T00:00:00 – 2026-06-12T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
News
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 24.92
- IV Rank (7D)
- 97.53
- Avg IV
- 253.5%
- Straddle (30D)
- $0.43
- Straddle (7D)
- $5.97
- P/C Volume
- 0.53
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.95
- Correlation (SPY)
- 22.6%
- R²
- 0.05
- Ann. Volatility
- 51.7%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.3%
Moderate volatility - stock generally follows market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 30,487,731 (as of 2026-03-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
3 filers$162.62K notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $101.52K | 62.43% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $49.59K | 30.49% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $11.52K | 7.08% | 2026-03-31 |
2 filers$13.39K notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $6.82K | 50.88% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $6.58K | 49.12% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Latest: 2025-11-12
Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-12 | Tevi David Troy | Director | Grant (A) | +56,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-11-12 | Thomas Martin Kuendig | Director | Grant (A) | +79,115 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-11-12 | David Spencer Soffer | Director | Grant (A) | +51,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-11-12 | Craig Evan Rademaker | Director | Grant (A) | +92,104 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-03-19 | JOHN SIMARD | Chief Executive Officer | Grant (A) | +1,026,228 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-02-04 | JOHN SIMARD | Chief Executive Officer | Other (J) | −2,470,355 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2024-06-21 | Donald H. MacAdam | Director | Grant (A) | +37,500 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2024-06-21 | Peter Libby | Director | Grant (A) | +37,500 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2024-06-21 | Jan-Paul Waldin | Director | Grant (A) | +37,500 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2024-06-21 | W THORPE MCKENZIE | Director | Grant (A) | +37,500 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2024-01-05 | JOHN SIMARD | Chief Executive Officer | Buy (P) | +2,470,355 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2023-06-26 | Jan-Paul Waldin | Director | Grant (A) | +25,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2023-06-26 | Donald H. MacAdam | Director | Grant (A) | +25,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2023-06-26 | W THORPE MCKENZIE | Director | Grant (A) | +25,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2023-06-26 | Peter Libby | Director | Grant (A) | +25,000 opt | — | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
Insider Holdings
9 insiders · @ $2.34
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | THOMAS GUT | 10%+ Owner | 3,914,111 | $9.16M | $0 | 1 | 2020-03-05 |
| 2 | JOHN SIMARD | Chief Executive Officer | 3,823,166 | $8.95M | -$5.64M | 27 | 2025-03-19 |
| 3 | W THORPE MCKENZIE | Director | 2,877,712 | $6.73M | -$8.07M | 34 | 2024-06-21 |
| 4 | BAY STREET FINANCIAL S.A. | 10%+ Owner | 1,981,515 | $4.64M | -$36.00M | 3 | 2020-12-18 |
| 5 | Jan-Paul Waldin | Director | 200,243 | $468.6K | $0 | 10 | 2024-06-21 |
| 6 | FONDATION RENNES | 10%+ Owner | 110,282 | $258.1K | $11.44M | 5 | 2020-02-13 |
| 7 | QUEENA HAN | VP Finance & HR | 30,000 | $70.2K | -$2.14M | 15 | 2021-11-23 |
| 8 | Peter Libby | Director | 25,000 | $58.5K | $0 | 7 | 2024-06-21 |
| 9 | Donald H. MacAdam | Director | 10,000 | $23.4K | $0 | 9 | 2024-06-21 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/B Ratio | 0.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.9 |
| TTM Net Income | $-0.0B |
| TTM EPS | $-1.32 |
| ROE | -29.8% |