BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.
XNYS
102.56
Delayed
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
BFH
$102.56
—
Key stats
$102.56
- 52-Week Range
- $57.11 – $114.53
- YTD
- +36.20%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 71.43
- Straddle Price
- $11.70
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.89
- Market Cap
- $3.9B
- Open
- $102.12
- Day Range
- $101.69 – $103.60
- Volume
- 589,350
- Prev Close
- $101.31
Fair Value
+50.0% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.21% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.24 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 12.05% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 11.05% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +51.4pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 16.8% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +5.1% |
| DCF Horizon | 12 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.05 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $2.2B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 16.8% |
| Book / Price | 74.2% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Bank Quality Adj | ×0.79 (target ROE vs peer median) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 89.4% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 42.6% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.25 |
| Quality Score | 5/6 — high quality (12y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $105.11 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $100.84 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 11.9% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-2.8B |
| Market Cap | $5B |
Peers used for multiples: AMG, CROX, CTO, FIGR, VCTR, VIRT
(filtered from 8 ETF-co-members; sector bias active)
Blended Fair Value
$265.06
Deviation
+50.0%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $750.26 | 21% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $13.70 | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | $150.89 | 6% | median 14.1× · 6 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 12.2× · 6 peers |
| Peer P/B | $222.58 | 10% | median 3.0× · 6 peers |
| Peer P/S | $401.32 | 3% | median 4.2× · 6 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $105.11 | 38% | stability 90% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $101.51 | 21% | 41 strikes · skew +0.21 |
As of 2026-10-16 · updated
Related
About
- Industry (SIC)
- PERSONAL CREDIT INSTITUTIONS (6141) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $3.9B
- Employees
- 6,000
- List Date
- 2001-06-07
- CIK
- 0001101215
- Next Earnings
- 2026-10-22 (Pre-Market)
- EPS Forecast
- $3.26 (5 est.)
- Headquarters
- Columbus, OH
- Homepage
- https://www.breadfinancial.com
Formed by a combination of JCPenney's credit card processing unit and The Limited's credit card bank business, Bread Financial is a provider of private-label and co-branded credit cards, loyalty programs, and marketing services. The company's most financially significant unit is its credit card business, which partners with retailers to jointly market Bread's credit cards to their customers. The company also retains a minority interest in spun-off LoyaltyOne, which operates the largest airline miles loyalty program in Canada and offers marketing services to grocery chains in Europe and Asia.
Summary
—
composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -- | 8.14% | 9.94% | 4.73% | -3.67% | 4.79% |
| Feb | -- | 7.88% | 5.37% | -14.46% | -3.00% | -1.05% |
| Mar | -- | -25.92% | -2.72% | -3.21% | 4.03% | -6.96% |
| Apr | -1.84% | -8.85% | 2.58% | -5.42% | 15.24% | 0.34% |
| May | -0.07% | 4.95% | 8.81% | 7.22% | 4.37% | 5.06% |
| Jun | -32.07% | 9.26% | 7.89% | 11.61% | 21.21% | 3.58% |
| Jul | 7.14% | 30.68% | 20.41% | 4.71% | 1.09% | 12.81% |
| Aug | -2.36% | -7.32% | 14.55% | 14.99% | -5.71% | 2.83% |
| Sep | -17.84% | -11.70% | -17.27% | -14.84% | -4.21% | -13.17% |
| Oct | 12.32% | -19.36% | 7.32% | 14.14% | 5.80%* | 4.04% |
| Nov | 11.77% | 5.20% | 15.92% | 6.49% | -- | 9.85% |
| Dec | -6.76% | 12.62% | 1.06% | 8.76% | -- | 3.92% |
| Total | -32.96% | -7.71% | 94.69% | 33.03% | 36.90% | 24.79% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $100.54
SMA 50: $104.96
SMA 200: $90.37
Current: $102.56
EMA 12: $100.87
EMA 26: $101.94
MACD: -1.0699 | Signal: 0.4993
BEARISH
ADX (14): 19.05
RANGE
+DI: 20.77
−DI: 21.53
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 51.32
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 70.23
Stoch %D: 69.68
Williams %R: -12.66
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $105.57
BB Lower: $95.51
NEUTRAL
OBV: 37,174,320
Vol SMA 20: 567,292
Vol ROC: 30.15%
ATR: $3.35
True Range: $2.29
HV 20: 33.8%
HV 30: 30.4%
HV 60: 31.8%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-18T00:00:00 – 2026-10-16T00:00:00
AI Analysis
BFH Stock Analysis Report
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: BEARISH | Confidence Level: 6/10
BFH presents a conflicted technical picture with bearish momentum indicators offset by positive news sentiment and reasonable valuation signals. The primary concern is the deteriorating technical setup—bearish MACD crossover, elevated negative directional movement (-DI: 24.63 vs +DI: 16.46), and declining volume momentum (VRoC: -41.24%)—combined with price trading below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. However, the neutral RSI (45.90) and recent positive analyst commentary provide some support against immediate downside acceleration.
Investment Thesis: BFH is caught in a correction phase with weakening momentum and below-average volume, despite favorable recent news coverage and solid sector positioning. The risk/reward tilts bearish in the near-term (1-4 weeks) until technical indicators stabilize, though medium-term support at $93.97 (Bollinger Lower Band) and $89.62 (200-day MA) provides defined downside risk parameters.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: Recent headlines are predominantly POSITIVE (4 of 6), focusing on BFH's relative valuation strength and analyst recommendations. However, these headlines are relatively generic comparison pieces rather than company-specific catalysts. The neutral news items regarding broader credit market deterioration (delinquencies rising) may be subtly weighing on sentiment despite not being BFH-specific. News sentiment does NOT align with recent technical deterioration, suggesting a disconnect between fundamental perception and institutional selling pressure.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction
Short-term (1-4 weeks): BEARISH
- Price: $100.73 trading BELOW SMA 20 ($102.57) and SMA 50 ($106.10)
- EMA 12 ($100.10) now below EMA 26 ($102.34), confirming bearish structure
- ADX 24.28 indicates weak trend strength—not a strong downtrend but directional weakness present
- The combination of price below both intermediate moving averages signals near-term downward bias
Medium-term (1-3 months): MIXED/NEUTRAL
- Price still above SMA 200 ($89.62) by $11.11, maintaining long-term bullish structure
- However, downtrend momentum building—stock is eroding the buffer to the 200-day MA
- Crossing below 200-day MA would signal potential shift to longer-term bearish regime
Long-term (3-12 months): BULLISH (Conditional)
- Price remains $11.11 above 200-day MA, preserving uptrend structure
- However, this support is being tested and should be closely monitored
Support/Resistance Levels
| Level | Type | Distance | Significance | |-------|------|----------|--------------| | $102.57 | Resistance (SMA 20) | +1.84 | Immediate overhead; reclaim would signal short-term recovery | | $106.10 | Resistance (SMA 50) | +5.37 | Key intermediate resistance; major trend break if cleared | | $100.73 | Current Price | — | Testing support above lower Bollinger Band | | $93.97 | Support (BB Lower) | -6.76 | First major support level; band squeeze signal if tested | | $89.62 | Support (SMA 200) | -11.11 | Critical long-term support; failure here signals major breakdown |
Interpretation: The stock is compressed between SMA 20 resistance overhead and Bollinger Lower Band support. This is a classic setup for either mean reversion (bounce to $102.57) or breakdown (decline to $93.97).
Momentum Signals
RSI (14): 45.90 — NEUTRAL
- Reading is precisely centered in the 30-70 neutral zone
- Not overbought or oversold; suggests price movement driven by sellers, not exhaustion
- Neither momentum extreme present to suggest imminent reversal
- Observation: Neutral RSI in a downtrend often precedes further weakness (contrary to overbought relief bounces)
MACD: -2.23 / Signal: -0.25 / Histogram: -1.98 — BEARISH CROSSOVER
- Histogram is negative (-1.98) and MACD (-2.23) remains below Signal Line (-0.25)
- MACD has crossed below its signal line, confirming bearish momentum shift
- This is the clearest bearish technical signal; downward momentum is building
- Data Quality Note: Signal line values appear inverted (signal typically crosses MACD)—assuming reported values are accurate, histogram is the reliable indicator
Bollinger Bands: NEUTRAL (Centered)
- Price at $100.73 is near the middle band ($102.57)
- Width: 16.75 shows normal volatility envelope (not squeeze)
- No extreme positioning suggests price is in equilibrium, neither overbought nor oversold
- Band signal: neutral—no immediate squeeze/breakout pattern
Volume Analysis
Volume Deterioration — BEARISH Signal
- Volume Rate of Change: -41.24% — significant declining volume trend
- Volume SMA 20: 630,201.65 — declining from this baseline
- OBV: 37,186,465.51 — absolute level provides limited insight without trend context
Interpretation: The -41.24% volume decline is the most concerning metric. Declining volume accompanying downward price movement suggests institutional disengagement rather than accumulation. This is bearish because:
- Suggests sellers are losing conviction (smaller position sizes)
- However, also indicates lack of strong buying support to stabilize price
- Typical precursor to either stabilization (flat period) or capitulation (sharper decline on eventual volume spike)
Institutional Interest Signal: The declining volume, combined with put/call OI ratio of 5.26 (elevated puts), suggests net institutional positioning may be cautiously defensive rather than aggressively bullish.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary (Last 10 Articles)
Themes Identified:
- Valuation Strength (Headlines #2, #5): Comparative value analysis positioning BFH favorably vs. FUTU and HASI—suggests analyst community views stock as reasonably valued
- Sector Momentum (Headlines #3, #4): Broader fintech/financial services sector showing strength; BFH included in "Strong Buy" lists
- Crypto/Stablecoin Development (Headline #1): Circle's $100M Binance deal—neutral for BFH directly, but positive for digital asset ecosystem BFH participates in
- Credit Market Stress (Headline #6): Rising credit delinquencies—potentially negative for financial services sector broadly, though not BFH-specific
Sentiment Breakdown:
- Positive: 4/6 (67%)
- Neutral: 2/6 (33%)
- Negative: 0/6 (0%)
Sentiment Assessment: POSITIVE (Aggregate)
However, with significant caveats:
- Positive headlines are primarily comparative/relative (BFH vs. other stocks) rather than fundamental catalysts
- No company-specific news (earnings, partnerships, product launches, management changes)
- No recency spike—most positive headlines from 9/15-9/23 timeframe; no recent catalyst trigger
- Contrast sharply with deteriorating technical setup, suggesting sentiment lags price action
Catalyst Identification
Time-Sensitive Events:
- Earnings: No earnings data available—DATA GAP. Typical financial services companies report quarterly; recommend identifying next earnings date
- Sector Events: Fed policy decisions, credit market developments could impact financial services broadly
- Company-Specific: Unknown—recommend checking investor relations for guidance on product launches, regulatory approvals, M&A activity
Immediate Catalysts (1-7 days): None identified from available data
Near-term (1-4 weeks): Unknown earnings date is critical gap
Medium-term (1-3 months): Sector credit cycle developments; regulatory environment
Market Narrative Assessment
Divergence Detected: ⚠️ CONFLICT BETWEEN NEWS AND TECHNICALS
- News Narrative: BFH is an attractive value opportunity with analyst support
- Technical Narrative: Stock is rolling over with bearish momentum crossover and volume deterioration
- Interpretation: News sentiment likely reflects lagging fundamental analysis; technical deterioration suggests institutional investors are rotating out ahead of news catching up, OR market is pricing in upcoming headwinds (unknown catalyst) not visible in headline data
Generated
News
All BFH news →
Earnings History
18 of 18 under expected move
Avg Expected Move
11.01%
Avg Actual Move
4.17%
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-28 | Pre-Market | 13.15% | 5.97% | 0.45x | Within |
| 2022-07-28 | Pre-Market | 13.69% | 5.25% | 0.38x | Within |
| 2022-10-27 | Pre-Market | 7.45% | 5.89% | 0.79x | Within |
| 2023-01-26 | Pre-Market | 11.07% | 5.83% | 0.53x | Within |
| 2023-04-27 | Pre-Market | 14.01% | 2.02% | 0.14x | Within |
| 2023-07-27 | Pre-Market | 10.22% | 8.27% | 0.81x | Within |
| 2023-10-26 | Pre-Market | 11.90% | 1.29% | 0.11x | Within |
| 2024-01-25 | Pre-Market | 10.75% | 6.98% | 0.65x | Within |
| 2024-04-25 | Pre-Market | 12.95% | 3.15% | 0.24x | Within |
| 2024-07-25 | Pre-Market | 9.59% | 4.00% | 0.42x | Within |
| 2024-10-24 | Pre-Market | 12.99% | 1.86% | 0.14x | Within |
| 2025-01-30 | Pre-Market | 10.33% | 0.09% | 0.01x | Within |
| 2025-04-24 | Pre-Market | 12.38% | 2.17% | 0.18x | Within |
| 2025-07-24 | Pre-Market | 8.22% | 4.98% | 0.61x | Within |
| 2025-10-23 | Pre-Market | 8.80% | 8.13% | 0.92x | Within |
| 2026-01-29 | Pre-Market | 9.53% | 7.08% | 0.74x | Within |
| 2026-04-23 | Pre-Market | 9.57% | 0.35% | 0.04x | Within |
| 2026-07-23 | Pre-Market | 11.63% | 1.68% | 0.14x | Within |
Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →
BFH Options Activity & IV Rank
BFH IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: 44.8%
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $11.70
7-DTE Move: $2.82
Days to Exp: 35 (2026-11-20)
Options Flow
Call Volume: 152
Put Volume: 136
P/C Volume: 0.895
NEUTRAL
Call OI: 269
Put OI: 1,564
P/C OI: 5.814
Total OI: 1,833
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $4.75
ATM Put: $6.95
Call %: 4.6%
Put %: 6.8%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 563
Chain OI: 3,404
Last Updated: 10/16/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Dealer Positioning
TYPICAL γ
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 75th percentile of this name's own daily history, within its typical range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Gamma percentile
75%
vs own history
GEX tilt
+0.33
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.04
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.02
δ-decay vs time
? What is this?
· 16 ATM contracts, 1k total OI
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
No data
30 DTE / 10d
71%
+13.1
pts
EXTREME
ATM 44.7% / Wing 57.8%
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)71.4MediumOct 16
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$11.70Oct 16
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: 1.1463
Alpha: 48.30%
Correlation: 0.3690
R-Squared: 13.6%
Stock Volatility: 39.6%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Above average volatility - stock moves with market amplification
Above average volatility - stock moves with market amplification
Beta & Alpha Over Time
BFH Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 44,750,000 (as of 2026-06-30)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
8 filers$22.19M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $13.90M | 62.65% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $3.04M | 13.72% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $2.73M | 12.31% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $1.27M | 5.71% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $985.99K | 4.44% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $203.25K | 0.92% | 2025-09-30 |
| 7 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $43.34K | 0.20% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | PEAK6 LLC | $10.84K | 0.05% | 2026-06-30 |
7 filers$33.51M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PEAK6 LLC | $10.84M | 32.33% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $9.11M | 27.19% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $6.49M | 19.37% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Walleye Trading LLC | $4.10M | 12.22% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $1.52M | 4.53% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $1.43M | 4.27% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $32.51K | 0.10% | 2026-06-30 |
BFH Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-09-16Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Dennis James McCarthy | EVP, Chief Revenue Officer | Buy (P) | +15 | $108.14 | $1.7K | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-29 | Praniti Lakhwara | Director | Sell (S) | −2,802 | $106.12 | -$297.3K | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-17 | John C Gerspach | Director | Award (A) | +730 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-17 | John C Gerspach | Director | Award (A) | +1,638 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-17 | Sharen J Turney | Director | Award (A) | +1,638 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-17 | Timothy J Theriault | Director | Award (A) | +1,638 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-17 | Rajesh Natarajan | Director | Award (A) | +1,638 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-17 | John J. Fawcett | Director | Award (A) | +1,638 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-17 | Joyce St Clair | Director | Award (A) | +1,638 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-17 | Praniti Lakhwara | Director | Award (A) | +1,638 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-17 | Laurie Anne Tucker | Director | Award (A) | +1,638 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-01 | Ralph J Andretta | President and CEO | Sell (S) | −15,000 | $89.10 | -$1.34M | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-22 | John J. Fawcett | Director | Buy (P) | +698 | $86.43 | $60.3K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-27 | Roger H Ballou | Director | Sell (S) | −9,687 | $90.32 | -$874.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-17 | John C Gerspach | Director | Award (A) | +483 | — | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
BFH Insider Holdings
17 insiders · @ $102.56
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ralph J Andretta | President and CEO | 595,741 | $61.10M | -$1.19M | 11 | 2026-06-01 |
| 2 | Valerie E Greer | EVP, Chief Commercial Officer | 157,355 | $16.14M | $113.2K | 10 | 2026-02-19 |
| 3 | Perry S Beberman | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | 142,061 | $14.57M | $119.5K | 11 | 2026-03-04 |
| 4 | Joseph L Motes III | EVP, CAO, Gen Counsel & Secy | 131,087 | $13.44M | $0 | 10 | 2026-02-19 |
| 5 | Tammy M McConnaughey | EVP, Operations & Credit Risk | 126,956 | $13.02M | $0 | 7 | 2026-02-19 |
| 6 | Allegra S Driscoll | EVP, Chief Technology Officer | 60,780 | $6.23M | $0 | 4 | 2026-03-04 |
| 7 | John C Gerspach | Director | 55,574 | $5.70M | $192.7K | 23 | 2026-07-17 |
| 8 | Jonathan Bryan Campbell | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | 38,877 | $3.99M | $0 | 6 | 2026-02-20 |
| 9 | Laurie Anne Tucker | Director | 35,459 | $3.64M | $0 | 11 | 2026-06-17 |
| 10 | Roger H Ballou | Director | 30,079 | $3.08M | -$674.9K | 8 | 2026-04-27 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
BFH Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)
Latest: 2026-07-28
? Form 144 Guide
Last 30d:
0 filings
· Last 90d:
1 filing
· $297K notice value
· 1 unique filer
What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.
Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.
Top 90-day filers:
Lakhwara Praniti (1, $297K)
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Lakhwara Praniti | Director | 2,802 | $297.3K | 2026-07-28 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-29 | RALPH ANDRETTA | Director, Officer | 15,000 | $1.33M | 2026-05-29 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-21 | BALLOU ROGER H | Director | 18,000 | $1.53M | 2026-05-21 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-24 | BALLOU ROGER H | Director | 9,687 | $874.9K | 2026-04-24 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
Notice value is the aggregate market value the filer states they intend to sell — not a confirmed transaction. Compare to Insider Activity (Form 4) to see which planned sales actually executed. Market-wide feed: Planned sales (Form 144).
ETF Holders
142 ETFs hold BFH
25 shown · $1.15B total exposure · 0.18% AUM-weighted avg weight
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.15% | $153.3M | $102.9B | 2026-10-14 |
| 2 | AVUV Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF | Avantis | 0.41% | $126.2M | $30.8B | 2026-10-14 |
| 3 | VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.00% | $113.4M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 4 | DFSV Dimensional US Small Cap Value ETF | Dimensional | 0.36% | $97.6M | — | 2026-10-14 |
| 5 | VB Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap ETF | Vanguard | 0.05% | $80.2M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 6 | DFAT Dimensional US Targeted Value ETF | Dimensional | 0.23% | $71.0M | — | 2026-10-14 |
| 7 | VBR Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF | Vanguard | 0.08% | $52.3M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 8 | IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.07% | $50.9M | $78.9B | 2026-10-14 |
| 9 | VXF Vanguard Extended Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.05% | $42.2M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 10 | DFAS Dimensional US Small Cap ETF | Dimensional | 0.11% | $37.7M | — | 2026-10-14 |
| 11 | SPSM State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 600™ Small Cap ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.22% | $34.7M | $15.5B | 2026-10-14 |
| 12 | IWN iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.24% | $32.0M | $13.7B | 2026-10-14 |
| 13 | IJS iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.43% | $31.8M | $7.5B | 2026-10-14 |
| 14 | CTEF Castellan Targeted Equity ETF | Nport | 4.15% | $25.3M | — | 2026-05-29 |
| 15 | XSMO Invesco S&P SmallCap Momentum ETF | Invesco | 0.84% | $23.4M | — | 2026-10-14 |
| 16 | VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF | Vanguard | 0.12% | $22.1M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 17 | PSC Principal U.S. Small-Cap ETF | Nport | 0.92% | $21.5M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 18 | SLYV State Street® SPDR® S&P 600™ Small Cap Value ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.43% | $19.9M | $4.7B | 2026-10-14 |
| 19 | DFMC Dimensional US Micro Cap ETF | Dimensional | 0.25% | $19.1M | — | 2026-10-14 |
| 20 | DFAC Dimensional US Core Equity 2 ETF | Dimensional | 0.02% | $18.9M | — | 2026-10-14 |
| 21 | SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF | Nport | 0.08% | $18.9M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 22 | BSVO EA Bridgeway Omni Small-Cap Value ETF | Nport | 0.76% | $18.1M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 23 | VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF | Vanguard | 0.02% | $15.1M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 24 | VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | Vanguard | 0.22% | $13.3M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 25 | FESM Fidelity Enhanced Small Cap Core ETF | Fidelity | 0.19% | $12.2M | $6.5B | 2026-10-14 |
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Trailing P/E
7.95
TTM Diluted EPS
$12.90
TTM Revenue
$5.15B
TTM Net Income
$565.00M
TTM Op. Cash Flow
$2.19B
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 '26 | 2026-06-30 | $1.26B | $144.00M | $3.55 | $533.00M |
| Q1 '26 | 2026-03-31 | $1.28B | $179.00M | $4.15 | $487.00M |
| Q4 '25 | 2025-12-31 | $1.41B | $54.00M | $1.24 | $568.00M |
| Q3 '25 | 2025-09-30 | $1.20B | $188.00M | $3.96 | $605.00M |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-06-30 | $1.20B | $139.00M | $2.94 | $526.00M |
| Q1 '25 | 2025-03-31 | $1.23B | $138.00M | $2.78 | $393.00M |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-12-31 | $1.32B | $7.00M | $0.12 | $479.00M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-09-30 | $1.22B | $2.00M | $0.05 | $456.00M |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-06-30 | $1.21B | $133.00M | $2.66 | $477.00M |
| Q1 '24 | 2024-03-31 | $1.28B | $134.00M | $2.70 | $447.00M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-12-31 | $1.39B | $43.00M | $0.90 | $617.00M |
| Q3 '23 | 2023-09-30 | $1.26B | $171.00M | $3.42 | $629.00M |
Q2 2026 • period ending 2026-06-30 • filed 2026-07-28
Valuation
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
Price Multiples
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
Profitability & Yields
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
Reading the history chart
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
P/E
7.95
P/B
1.36
P/S
0.89
EV/EBITDA
1.25
EV/Sales
0.34
ROE
16.8%
ROA
2.5%
Div Yield
1.16%
FCF Yield
47.78%
Debt/Equity
0.25
Current Ratio
—
Market Cap
$4.59B
as of 2026-10-16
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
3.24M
SI % of Float
8.57%
Days to Cover
4.79
Short Vol Ratio
72.9%
Free Float
37.79M
Float %
98.4%
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-16 • Float 2026-08-24