What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 10%, implying a 10% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Tom Homan

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 16 Open interest 2.3K Event Who will be arrested before 2027?

10%

implied YES probability

Last 16 days · High 13% · Low 8% · 7d +9.1pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.