Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026?
chance of YES26%
+6.0pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
16–30%
24h volume
3.2K
Open interest
4.2K
Large orders (14d)
$1K
Odds and volume
daily, 120 daysLine: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.
Open on Kalshi
We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent large orders
≥ $1K · 14 days| When | Side | Price | Contracts | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 71¢ | 1,500 | $1K |
Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.