K KalshiPolitics & Elections

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)

12 outcomesSettles Oct 20, 2026 (0d)

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Theme
Preview
50/50 line54%Above 190
Line nearest 50/50
54%
Above 190
Market median
191.273
even odds of landing above or below
Biggest 24h move+22 pts
66%
Above 185
24h volume
$28K
$53K open interest · $1 contracts

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no
Above 150 98%
Above 160 94% +4
Above 170 88% +8
Above 180 80% +20
Above 185 66% +22
Above 190 54% +18
Above 200 26% +6
Above 210 10% +4
Above 220 4%
Above 230 2%
Above 240 2%
Above 250 2%

What the market expects

median 191.273

Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.

Odds over time

rungs nearest 50/50 · daily

Where the large orders went

7 days · ≥ $1K
  • Above 150
    YES $7K · NO $0 · 3 orders · biggest $3K
  • Above 160
    YES $6K · NO $0 · 3 orders · biggest $3K
  • Above 170
    YES $5K · NO $0 · 2 orders · biggest $3K
  • Above 230
    YES $0 · NO $3K · 2 orders · biggest $2K
  • Above 180
    YES $2K · NO $0 · 2 orders · biggest $1K
  • Above 200
    YES $0 · NO $1K · 1 orders · biggest $1K

Recent large orders

WhenOutcomeSidePriceSize
Above 180YES 75¢$1K
Above 200NO 71¢$1K
Above 150YES 97¢$3K
Above 160YES 93¢$1K
Above 180YES 70¢$1K
Above 170YES 80¢$3K
Above 170YES 77¢$2K
Above 150YES 96¢$1K
Above 160YES 87¢$3K
Above 150YES 95¢$3K

All outcomes

12
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
Above 150 98% +0.5 $4K $9K
Above 160 94% +4.5 $2K $10K
Above 170 88% +8.5 $7K $8K
Above 180 80% +19.5 $5K $6K
Above 185 66% +22.0 $1K $1K
Above 190 54% +17.5 $2K $4K
Above 200 26% +6.0 $3K $4K
Above 210 10% +4.0 $1K $3K
Above 220 4% — $1K $3K
Above 230 2% -0.5 $100 $1K
Above 240 2% +0.5 $100 $3K
Above 250 2% +0.5 $100 $1K

Same series