Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
50/50 line48%Above 190
Line nearest 50/50
48%
Market median
189.375
Biggest 24h move+17 pts
75%
24h volume
$20K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noWhat the market expects
median 189.375Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · hourlyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Above 160YES $4K · NO $0 · 2 orders · biggest $3K
- Above 170YES $1K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $1K
- Above 210YES $0 · NO $1K · 1 orders · biggest $1K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 210 | NO | 84¢ | $1K | |
| Above 160 | YES | 87¢ | $1K | |
| Above 170 | YES | 82¢ | $1K | |
| Above 160 | YES | 84¢ | $3K |
All outcomes
11| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 150 | 94% | +4.0 | $1K | $2K |
| Above 160 | 92% | +8.0 | $4K | $4K |
| Above 170 | 84% | +7.0 | $5K | $3K |
| Above 180 | 75% | +17.0 | $2K | $1K |
| Above 185 | 60% | +13.5 | $401 | $648 |
| Above 190 | 48% | +7.5 | $725 | $1K |
| Above 195 | 46% | — | $379 | $379 |
| Above 200 | 33% | +8.0 | $819 | $681 |
| Above 205 | 22% | +2.0 | $493 | $233 |
| Above 210 | 16% | +2.0 | $5K | $1K |
| Above 220 | 8% | — | $500 | $849 |
Same series
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)≈ Above 190 53% · settles 2026-10-20