What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 8%, implying a 8% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Financials

8,200 to 8,399.99

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (106d) 24h volume 2.2K Open interest 188.9K Event S&P close price end of 2026?

implied YES probability

+0.5pp 24h

Last 86 days · High 13% · Low 6% · 7d -11.1pp · 30d -27.3pp

Spread 2.0¢ · Mid 12.0¢

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.