Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 2 percentage points?
chance of YES46%
-2.0pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
9–50%
24h volume
1.7K
Open interest
26.0K
Bid / ask
44¢ / 45¢
Odds and volume
daily, 120 daysLine: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.
Order book
top 5| Bid | Size | Ask | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44.0¢ | 47 | 45.0¢ | 22 |
| 43.0¢ | 1,314 | 46.0¢ | 200 |
| 41.0¢ | 200 | 47.0¢ | 121 |
| 3.6¢ | 1,233 | 48.0¢ | 86 |
| 3.5¢ | 550 | 49.0¢ | 1,003 |
Mid 44.5¢ · spread 1.0¢
Open on Kalshi
We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.
Other outcomes in this event
James Talarico, 1+ pts56%696
James Talarico, 3+ pts34%2.0K
James Talarico, 4+ pts22%794
James Talarico, 5+ pts20%762
Recent large orders
≥ $1K · 14 days| When | Side | Price | Contracts | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | 50¢ | 13,063 | $7K | |
| NO | 55¢ | 2,000 | $1K | |
| NO | 55¢ | 2,000 | $1K | |
| NO | 55¢ | 5,000 | $3K | |
| NO | 65¢ | 12,576 | $8K | |
| YES | 52¢ | 6,949 | $4K | |
| NO | 71¢ | 6,949 | $5K |
Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.