What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 14%, implying a 14% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 07, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Gavin Newsom

Closes Nov 07, 2029 (1239d) 24h volume 6.8K Open interest 1.5M Event 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

14%

implied YES probability

Last 91 days · High 20% · Low 13% · 7d -6.7pp · 30d -6.7pp

Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 14.5¢

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.