What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 33%, implying a 33% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 07, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

J.D. Vance

Closes Nov 07, 2028 (873d) 24h volume $7.6K Open interest $8.1M Event Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

33%

implied YES probability

-0.7pp 24h

Price history

Last 90 days · High 42% · Low 30% · 7d +0.6pp · 30d -6.3pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.