What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 1%, implying a 1% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 07, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Donald Trump Jr.

Closes Nov 07, 2028 (828d) 24h volume $1.2K Open interest $9.1M Event Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 4% · Low 1% · 7d +8.7pp · 30d -41.9pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing Donald Trump Jr.'s chances of winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at a 1% probability, with a YES price of 0.01. This assessment is informed by known facts about Trump Jr.'s political career and reputation to date. The current price suggests that most participants in the market do not believe he has a strong chance of securing the nomination. For the price to increase (i.e., move up), new information would need to emerge that significantly improves his prospects, such as a major endorsement or a shift in party dynamics. Conversely, if negative developments were to occur, such as a scandal or declining popularity, the price could decrease. The market will close on November 7, 2028, and its resolution will be determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Generated Jul 12, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.