What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 07, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Donald Trump

Closes Nov 07, 2028 (828d) 24h volume $668 Open interest $9.1M Event Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 3% · Low 1% · 7d +2.3pp · 30d +51.7pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market on whether Donald Trump will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination is currently priced at 0.03, indicating a 3% probability of his victory. This assessment is informed by known facts such as Trump's past political experience and his ability to generate attention and publicity. The current price does not take into account any potential changes in the political landscape or shifts in public opinion that may occur between now and the nomination date. A significant event that could impact the market price would be a change in Trump's political stance or a major scandal that affects his reputation, either of which could increase or decrease the likelihood of his winning the nomination.

Generated Jul 25, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.