What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketPolitics & Elections

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (60d) All outcomes: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

chance of YES0%

Price range (120d)

—

24h volume

—

USDC traded

Open interest

$8.0M

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Not enough trading history to chart yet.

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

December 313%$35.2K

April 300%—

June 300%—

September 300%—

May 310%—

October 310%—

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.