Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The prediction market on whether the US will confirm that aliens exist by September 30 is currently priced at 0.03, indicating a 3% probability of this event occurring. The current price reflects the known facts surrounding the search for extraterrestrial life and the lack of concrete evidence or official confirmation from government agencies or credible sources. The market is asking whether the US will definitively state that aliens exist by the specified deadline, with the primary resolution source being official information from the government of the United States. A consensus of credible reporting would also influence the outcome. Any new developments or statements from government officials or credible sources that suggest the existence of extraterrestrial life could drive the price up, while a lack of such evidence or continued uncertainty would likely push the price down.