Will the US federal government take a stake in Unusual Machines?

Unusual Machines
Settles Jan 01, 2027 (72d) All outcomes: Which companies will the US take a stake in?

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chance of YES29% -20.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
20–57%
30d -33 pts · 7d -20 pts
24h volume
$1
USDC traded
Open interest
$25.8K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Related stocks

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We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Anduril24%$132
OpenAI12%$9
Nvidia12%$275
Boeing7%$10
Anthropic6%$540

How it settles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.