What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 1%, implying a 1% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 07, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Rand Paul

Closes Nov 07, 2028 (828d) 24h volume $52 Open interest $9.1M Event Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 1% · Low 1% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d -21.1pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market for Rand Paul's chances of winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination indicates a low probability, with a current YES price of 0.01, implying a 1% chance of occurrence. This assessment is informed by known facts about Rand Paul's political career and the competitive nature of the Republican primary process. The market will close on November 7th, 2028, at which point it will be resolved based on whether Rand Paul wins and accepts the nomination. Any changes to the nominee prior to election day would not affect the market's outcome.

Generated Jul 13, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.