What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 08, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketPolitics & Elections

Will Person Y win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Person Y

Settles Nov 08, 2028 (750d) All outcomes: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

chance of YES0%

Price range (120d)

—

24h volume

—

USDC traded

Open interest

$8.1M

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Not enough trading history to chart yet.

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%—

J.D. Vance44%$51.2K

Marco Rubio14%$13.9K

Ron DeSantis4%$146.7K

Tucker Carlson3%$7.5K

Ted Cruz2%$752

Donald Trump2%$419

Donald Trump Jr.2%$387

How it settles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.