What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 07, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Matt Gaetz

Closes Nov 07, 2028 (828d) 24h volume $1.5K Open interest $9.1M Event Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 1% · Low 0% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d -66.7pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market on Matt Gaetz winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination currently shows a price of 0.00, indicating a perceived probability of zero. This assessment is based on known facts about Gaetz's political career and current standing within the Republican Party. The market's resolution will be determined by official Republican Party sources, with any changes to the nominee prior to election day not affecting the outcome. As such, the price would likely remain unchanged unless new information emerges that significantly alters Gaetz's chances of securing the nomination.

Generated Jul 21, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.