polymarket
Politics
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Elon Musk
1%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 1% ·
Low 1%
· 7d 0.0pp
· 30d -21.1pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Tesla's $99-a-Month FSD Plan Is on Pace to Generate $1.8 Billion a Year. Is This New Profit Lever a Signal to Buy the Elon Musk-Led Stock?
Motley Fool · 12h ago
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Elon Musk Has Missed His Own Robotaxi Timelines Four Times Since 2025. Should Investors Still Believe the Next One?
Motley Fool · 20h ago
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Elon Musk Says SpaceX Short-Sellers Have a "Very Low" Survival Probability. Is He Right?
Motley Fool · 1d ago
AI analysis
The prediction market on whether Elon Musk will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination suggests a low probability of this outcome, with a current YES price of 0.01, implying a 1% chance. This assessment is based on known facts about Musk's background and political views, which may not align with traditional Republican Party stances. The market's resolution will be determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources, including the party's nomination process and any subsequent announcements or endorsements. Any changes to the nominee prior to election day would not affect the market's outcome.
Generated Jul 14, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.