Seeking AlphaT3·29mo ago
DBP Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund
ETF 90.54 DelayedETF quote, holdings, sector allocation, technicals, and options analytics. Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
DBP
$90.54
—
Key stats
$90.54
- 52-Week Range
- $90.01 – $140.76
- YTD
- -12.82%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 23.96
- Straddle Price
- $5.38
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 1.00
- Open
- $90.18
- Day Range
- $90.18 – $90.94
- Volume
- 63,209
- Prev Close
- $90.38
About
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund (DBP) ETF
No description available.
- Exchange
- ARCX
- Inception
- 2007-01-05
- Has Options
- Yes
Fund profile
Commodity pool: likely to report on a Schedule K-1 rather than a 1099. Check the prospectus.
- Expense ratio
- —
- Assets
- $235M shares × price, Oct 23, 2026
- Trailing yield
- 2.77% paid annual
- Average daily volume
- $1.1M 30 sessions
- Holdings
- —
- Listed
- Jan 5, 2007 NYSE Arca
Costn/a
Liquidity34
Scale51
Diversificationn/a
Moves with. Gold (91% of its variance, beta 1.15). These factors explain 94% of its daily moves over the last year.
Fund flows
This product is not a registered investment company, so it does not file the monthly flow reports that funds file with the SEC.
Similar funds
| Fund | Overlap | Fee | Assets | 1Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEFSprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust | — | — | $6.6B | +2.2% | compare |
| GLTRabrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF | — | — | $2.4B | −0.6% | compare |
| PPLTabrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF | — | — | $1.8B | −5.3% | compare |
| PALLabrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF | — | — | $542M | −28.4% | compare |
| SPPPSprott Physical Platinum and Palladium Trust | — | — | $450M | −15.3% | compare |
The largest other funds in the Precious Metals category.
ETF Profile
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -4.99% | -0.60% | 3.78% | -1.75% | 5.27% | 11.64% | 2.23% |
| Feb | -7.25% | 6.47% | -7.71% | -0.65% | -0.01% | 13.78% | 0.77% |
| Mar | -2.72% | -0.96% | 8.64% | 6.92% | 7.94% | -13.28% | 1.09% |
| Apr | 2.29% | -2.84% | 1.23% | 2.95% | 3.13% | -2.51% | 0.71% |
| May | 5.68% | -2.26% | -1.86% | 3.46% | 1.95% | -1.26% | 0.95% |
| Jun | -7.06% | -3.25% | -3.31% | -1.77% | -1.15% | -13.03% | -4.93% |
| Jul | 0.87% | -1.87% | 3.22% | 3.55% | -1.03% | -0.75% | 0.66% |
| Aug | -1.44% | -5.23% | -0.28% | 1.97% | 4.47% | 10.35% | 1.64% |
| Sep | -4.41% | -0.48% | -5.52% | 6.61% | 9.11% | -4.20% | 0.18% |
| Oct | 2.22% | -4.87% | 8.38% | 3.34% | 2.85% | -5.60%* | 1.05% |
| Nov | -1.87% | 8.23% | 4.14% | -3.22% | 7.13% | -- | 2.88% |
| Dec | 3.01% | 1.49% | -6.27% | -4.35% | 3.54% | -- | -0.52% |
| Total | -15.43% | -6.87% | 2.83% | 17.59% | 51.98% | -8.66% | 6.91% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $94.24
SMA 50: $98.75
SMA 200: $105.80
Current: $90.54
EMA 12: $93.12
EMA 26: $94.99
MACD: -1.8721 | Signal: -0.2859
BEARISH
ADX (14): 24.29
WEAK TREND
+DI: 20.26
−DI: 43.86
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 33.11
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 3.50
Stoch %D: 15.94
Williams %R: -94.12
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $97.70
BB Lower: $90.79
OVERSOLD
OBV: 1,946,505
Vol SMA 20: 13,479
Vol ROC: 6660.21%
ATR: $1.41
True Range: $0.76
HV 20: 20.8%
HV 30: 23.4%
HV 60: 26.4%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-28T00:00:00 – 2026-10-26T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Here is a comprehensive stock analysis report for DBP:
Executive Summary
BULLISH (Confidence Level: 7/10)
Key drivers: Gold's recent strength, low volatility, and positive sentiment from news headlines.
Primary risks: Potential divergence between gold prices and DBP's performance, high IV ranking indicating historically high volatility.
Investment thesis: DBP is a low-risk ETF with potential to benefit from gold's strength and relatively stable market conditions. However, the stock's beta is relatively low, which may limit its ability to capture significant upside in a rising market.
Recent news sentiment impact: Positive news headlines on gold prices have contributed to DBP's recent gains.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction:
- Short-term (1-4 weeks): Bearish momentum due to MACD signal (-1.19 / Signal: -0.27)
- Medium-term (1-3 months): Range-bound, with ADX regime indicating range-bound conditions
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Lower band: $103.47
- Middle band: $109.41
- Upper band: $115.34
Momentum Signals: RSI interpretation: Neutral (45.86) MACD signal: Bearish (-1.19 / Signal: -0.27)
Bollinger Bands position: Squeeze, with price approaching the middle band
Volume Analysis:
- Volume SMA 20: 13191.00
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): 1414003.77
- Volume Rate of Change: 243.41%
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: Gold's strength, ETF performance, and market commentary have been the primary themes.
Sentiment Assessment: Neutral to positive sentiment from recent news headlines.
Catalyst Identification:
- Upcoming event: No significant events scheduled.
- Earnings date: Not applicable for DBP.
Market Narrative: DBP's price movement is largely driven by gold prices and macroeconomic conditions, with some influence from ETF performance.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Risk Assessment: Beta: 0.68 (low risk relative to market) Alpha: 0.25 (relatively stable performance)
Volatility Regime: Historical volatility: HV20 27.4%, HV30 27.1%, and HV60 30.5% Current IV ranking: 86.0% (highly volatile, historically speaking)
Options Market Signals:
- IV rank: 86.0% (high)
- Put/Call volume ratio: 0.18 (bullish sentiment)
Downside Protection: Support levels: $103.47 (lower band) and $109.41 (middle band)
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: DBP is performing relatively well compared to the broader market.
Institutional Activity: High institutional interest, as indicated by volume flows and open interest in options contracts.
Correlation Analysis: DBP's price movement is highly correlated with gold prices, indicating a strong relationship between the two assets.
Relative Valuation: DBP is positioned within a trading range, with no clear upside or downside momentum.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Support: $103.47 (lower band) and $109.41 (middle band)
- Resistance: $115.34 (upper band)
Breakout/Breakdown Levels: No significant technical levels to monitor for potential breakouts or breakdowns.
Time-Sensitive Catalysts:
- No upcoming events scheduled.
- Earnings date: Not applicable for DBP.
Risk Management: Stop-loss levels: Consider placing stops at the lower band ($103.47) and middle band ($109.41). Position sizing considerations: Start with a small position size and gradually increase as the stock consolidates within its trading range.
Generated
News
All DBP news →
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DBP Options Activity & IV Rank
DBP IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: 28.2%
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $5.38
7-DTE Move: $5.38
Days to Exp: 25 (2026-11-20)
Options Flow
Call Volume: 4
Put Volume: 4
P/C Volume: 1.0
NEUTRAL
Call OI: 1
Put OI: 4
P/C OI: 4.0
Total OI: 5
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $1.75
ATM Put: $3.62
Call %: 1.9%
Put %: 4.0%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 18
Chain OI: 12
Last Updated: 10/26/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
as of Oct 26 · No data
30 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
as of Oct 26 · ATM 36.0% / Wing —
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)24.0LowOct 26
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$5.38Oct 26
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: 1.0659
Alpha: -11.56%
Correlation: 0.3914
R-Squared: 15.3%
Stock Volatility: 34.7%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Above average volatility - stock moves with market amplification
Above average volatility - stock moves with market amplification
Beta & Alpha Over Time
DBP Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
28.26K
SI % of Float
1.09%
Days to Cover
1.71
Short Vol Ratio
98.7%
Free Float
—
Float %
—
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-26
Constituent Performance
Click any bar to view the full quote for that stock.
Constituents
| Symbol | Name | Weight % | Price | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month |
|---|