FTW Presidio Production Company
XNYS 9.88 DelayedStock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $9.50 – $17.20
- YTD
- -5.82%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 66.03
- Straddle Price
- $0.45
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 5.39
- Market Cap
- $0.3B
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.26% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.26% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 10.13% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +159.3pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Quality Score | 0/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $10.95 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $10.30 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 88.8% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.0B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $20.59 | 32% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | median 12.8× · 8 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 5.2× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/B | n/a | 0% | median 1.3× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | median 2.9× · 8 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $10.95 | 68% | stability 84% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $10.01 | 0% | 5 strikes · skew +0.70 |
- Industry (SIC)
- CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS (1311)
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $0.3B
Presidio Production Co is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in oil and gas exploration and production, with operations concentrated across the Western Anadarko Basin of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. It oeprates in one reportable segment, which is engaged in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil and natural gas properties. It derives its revenue from customers through the sale of oil, natural gas, and NGLs as well as other immaterial service contracts in United States.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.28% | 1 |
| Feb | +14.99% | 1 |
| Mar | -9.97% | 1 |
| Apr | -1.47% | 1 |
| May | +12.91% | 1 |
| Jun | -0.08% | 1 |
| Jul | -6.41% | 1 |
| Aug | -5.39% | 1 |
| Sep | -8.71% | 1 |
| Oct | -1.00% | 1 |
| Nov | -0.10% | 1 |
| Dec | +0.48% | 1 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report
Executive Summary
Executive Assessment: NEUTRAL (Confidence Level: 6/10)
Key Drivers:
- Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend with no clear direction
- Recent news headlines are generally positive, but not significantly impacting the stock price
- Options market suggests bullish sentiment with a put/call volume ratio of 0.53
Primary Risks:
- High volatility and risk of sudden moves due to the stock's negative beta (-0.03)
- Lack of earnings data available for analysis
Investment Thesis:
FTW is a relatively stable stock with no clear direction, making it suitable for investors seeking stability in their portfolios. However, the high volatility and risk associated with its negative beta require caution when considering this stock.
Recent News Sentiment Impact:
The recent news headlines have had a neutral impact on the stock price, with no significant catalysts or events driving significant moves. The positive sentiment is reflected in the options market, but the stock's technical indicators suggest no clear trend direction.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction: NEUTRAL (Short-term: Neutral, Medium-term: Weak Trend)
Support/Resistance Levels:
- SMA 20: $11.18
- SMA 50: $11.58
- SMA 200: $11.23
- Upper Bollinger Band: $11.81
Momentum Signals:
- RSI (14): 35.66 (Neutral)
- MACD: -0.24 / Signal: -0.06 / Histogram: -0.18 (Bearish)
Volume Analysis:
- Volume SMA 20: 100124.60
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): -631024.28
- Volume Rate of Change: -52.80%
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary:
The recent news headlines are primarily positive, highlighting Presidio's business combination with EQV Ventures Acquisition Corp.
Sentiment Assessment:
Aggregate sentiment is POSITIVE, reflecting the generally positive tone of the recent news headlines.
Catalyst Identification:
No significant catalysts or events driving significant moves in the stock price.
Market Narrative:
The market narrative suggests a relatively stable and neutral trend, with no clear direction.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Risk Metrics:
- Beta: -0.03 (vs SPY)
- Alpha: 0.11
- Correlation: -0.01
- Stock Volatility: 0.40
Interpretation:
The negative beta suggests that the stock moves opposite to the market, while the high volatility and risk require caution when considering this stock.
Options Market Signals:
- IV Rank: 0.0% (Low)
- Current IV: 116.2%
- Expected Move: $1.32 (38 DTE), 7-DTE: $2.60
- Volume Flow: 784 calls vs 417 puts
- Open Interest: 1,447 calls vs 798 puts
Downside Protection:
Support levels and risk management considerations are crucial when considering this stock due to its high volatility and risk.
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance:
FTW is a relatively stable stock within the Presidio sector, which suggests no significant sector-related catalysts driving the stock's movement.
Institutional Activity:
Volume patterns suggesting institutional interest are not evident in the recent trading activity.
Correlation Analysis:
The correlation analysis suggests that the stock moves opposite to the market (beta: -0.03), indicating a high degree of independence from the overall market trend.
Relative Valuation:
FTW is positioned within its historical trading range, suggesting no significant relative valuation catalysts driving the stock's movement.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- SMA 20: $11.18
- Upper Bollinger Band: $11.81
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
None evident in the recent technical analysis.
Time-Sensitive Catalysts:
Earnings dates, FDA approvals, product launches are not available for this stock due to the lack of earnings data.
Risk Management:
Stop-loss levels and position sizing considerations are crucial when considering this stock due to its high volatility and risk.
Recommendation:
Given the neutral trend direction and lack of clear catalysts driving significant moves in the stock price, investors may consider a defensive approach or hedging strategies to manage risk. However, for those seeking stability in their portfolios, FTW could be an attractive option.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | unknown | 32.48% | 0.00% | 0.00x | Within |
- IV Rank (30D)
- 66.03
- IV Rank (7D)
- 66.03
- Avg IV
- 217.2%
- Straddle (30D)
- $0.45
- Straddle (7D)
- $0.45
- P/C Volume
- 5.39
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.02
- Correlation (SPY)
- 0.7%
- R²
- 0.00
- Ann. Volatility
- 38.5%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.9%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $1.90M | 78.81% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $507.07K | 21.04% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Caption Management, LLC | $3.65K | 0.15% | 2026-06-30 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $553.28K | 53.22% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | CSS LLC/IL | $486.40K | 46.78% | 2026-06-30 |
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | EQV Resources Intermediate LLC | 10%+ Owner | Other (J) | −6,844,520 | — | EDGAR |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.