Millrose Properties, Inc.(MRP)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $26.30 – $36.00
- YTD
- +2.65%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 37.29
- Straddle Price
- $1.75
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.66
- Market Cap
- $5.0B
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.50% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.00% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.87% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +64.9pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 4.4% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +30.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 12 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.10 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $4.4B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 7.9% |
| Book / Price | 118.0% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 100.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 624.2% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.00 |
| Quality Score | 5/6 — high quality (12y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $28.81 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $28.68 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 29.3% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.0B |
| Market Cap | $5B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $2059.22 | 33% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $77.70 | 26% | |
| Peer P/E | $90.12 | 10% | median 29.4× · 6 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $54.22 | 10% | median 13.4× · 7 peers |
| Peer P/B | $43.01 | 10% | median 1.2× · 7 peers |
| Peer P/S | $18.37 | 10% | median 3.9× · 7 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $28.81 | 2% | stability 4% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
- Industry (SIC)
- REAL ESTATE (6500)
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $5.0B
Millrose Properties Inc is a Holding Company. The company, along with its subsidiaries, engages in providing operational and capital solutions for home builders and land development companies to finance the acquisition and development of land assets through its Homesite Option Purchase Platform. The company generates a key portion of its revenue from Option fee revenues and a smaller portion of revenue from Development loan income.
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +0.07% | 1 |
| Feb | -2.27% | 2 |
| Mar | +4.02% | 2 |
| Apr | +3.04% | 2 |
| May | -0.13% | 2 |
| Jun | +6.66% | 2 |
| Jul | +5.60% | 1 |
| Aug | -0.23% | 1 |
| Sep | -2.72% | 1 |
| Oct | -0.98% | 1 |
| Nov | -4.75% | 1 |
| Dec | +0.27% | 1 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-14 | After-Close | 8.63% | 2.82% | 0.33x | Within |
| 2025-07-31 | Pre-Market | 5.89% | 1.80% | 0.31x | Within |
| 2025-10-09 | After-Close | 8.26% | 5.36% | 0.65x | Within |
| 2026-02-26 | After-Close | 7.01% | 1.20% | 0.17x | Within |
| 2026-05-06 | After-Close | 7.54% | 4.58% | 0.61x | Within |
- IV Rank (30D)
- 37.29
- IV Rank (7D)
- 37.29
- Avg IV
- 78.6%
- Straddle (30D)
- $1.75
- Straddle (7D)
- $1.75
- P/C Volume
- 0.66
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.78
- Correlation (SPY)
- 35.5%
- R²
- 0.13
- Ann. Volatility
- 27.4%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.5%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $10.02M | 56.50% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $2.98M | 16.78% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $2.30M | 13.00% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $859.60K | 4.85% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | Brevan Howard Capital Management LP | $614.57K | 3.47% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $548.53K | 3.09% | 2025-09-30 |
| 7 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $392.00K | 2.21% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | WOLVERINE ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $11.20K | 0.06% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $8.40K | 0.05% | 2026-03-31 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WOLVERINE ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $4.05M | 41.98% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $2.84M | 29.46% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $1.02M | 10.58% | 2025-09-30 |
| 4 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $795.20K | 8.25% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $492.80K | 5.11% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $420.00K | 4.36% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $25.20K | 0.26% | 2026-03-31 |
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Matthew B. Gorson | Director | Buy (P) | +4,500 | $26.96 | $121.3K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-13 | Darren Richman | See Remarks | Buy (P) | +235,000 | $27.31 | $6.42M | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-13 | PATRICK J JR BARTELS | Director | Award (A) | +5,639 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-13 | CARLOS A. MIGOYA | Director | Award (A) | +5,639 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-13 | Robert Nitkin | Chief Operating Officer | Buy (P) | +1,840 | $26.60 | $48.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-13 | Matthew B. Gorson | Director | Award (A) | +5,639 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-13 | Kathleen B. Lynch | Director | Award (A) | +5,639 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-13 | Mary Alison Mincey | Director | Award (A) | +5,639 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-13 | Rachel Presa | General Counsel and Secretary | Buy (P) | +1,032 | $27.01 | $27.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-09 | Matthew B. Gorson | Director | Buy (P) | +1,000 | $30.66 | $30.7K | EDGAR |
| 2025-12-12 | Mary Alison Mincey | Director | Award (A) | +6,451 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-12-12 | CARLOS A. MIGOYA | Director | Award (A) | +6,451 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-12-12 | Matthew B. Gorson | Director | Award (A) | +6,451 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-12-12 | Kathleen B. Lynch | Director | Award (A) | +6,451 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-12-12 | PATRICK J JR BARTELS | Director | Award (A) | +6,451 | — | EDGAR |
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Richman | See Remarks | 500,000 | $15.46M | $6.42M | 1 | 2026-05-13 |
| 2 | PATRICK J JR BARTELS | Director | 42,750 | $1.32M | $0 | 2 | 2026-05-13 |
| 3 | Matthew B. Gorson | Director | 35,750 | $1.11M | $152.0K | 4 | 2026-05-19 |
| 4 | CARLOS A. MIGOYA | Director | 29,075 | $899.3K | $0 | 2 | 2026-05-13 |
| 5 | Kathleen B. Lynch | Director | 21,600 | $668.1K | $0 | 2 | 2026-05-13 |
| 6 | Mary Alison Mincey | Director | 17,750 | $549.0K | $0 | 2 | 2026-05-13 |
| 7 | Robert Nitkin | Chief Operating Officer | 5,065 | $156.7K | $48.9K | 1 | 2026-05-13 |
| 8 | Rachel Presa | General Counsel and Secretary | 2,500 | $77.3K | $27.9K | 1 | 2026-05-13 |
| 9 | LENNAR CORP /NEW/ | 10%+ Owner | 1,794 | $55.5K | $0 | 1 | 2025-12-01 |
| Filing Date | Accession | Link |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | 0001193125-26-230841 | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-06 | 0001193125-26-207650 | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-27 | 0001193125-26-127640 | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-23 | 0001193125-26-119794 | EDGAR |
| 2026-02-27 | 0001193125-26-083052 | EDGAR |
| 2026-02-26 | 0001193125-26-073913 | EDGAR |
| 2025-12-22 | 0001193125-25-328840 | EDGAR |
| 2025-10-23 | 0001193125-25-247786 | EDGAR |
| 2025-10-09 | 0001193125-25-235180 | EDGAR |
| 2025-09-22 | 0001193125-25-211319 | EDGAR |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 11.0 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.8 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1 |
| TTM Revenue | $0.7B |
| TTM Net Income | $0.5B |
| TTM EPS | $2.79 |
| ROE | 7.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 8.53% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 |