Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.(UGP)

Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.

UGP iron condor setups UGP expected move UGP IV rank history UGP Fibonacci levels

Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.

UGP $6.56 —
Snapshot
$6.56
52-Week Range
$2.88 – $6.56
YTD
+71.73%
IV Rank (30D)
43.79
Straddle Price
$1.65
P/C Vol Ratio
0.03
Market Cap
$6.9B
Fair Value
MODEL: SHORT

A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.

  • DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
  • Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
  • DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
  • P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
  • Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
  • Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
  • Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
  • Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
10-yr Treasury (rf)4.60%
Beta vs SPY1.00
Cost of Equity (CAPM)10.10% (VRP-adj)
WACC10.04%
Volatility Risk Premium+49.0pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps
Effective Tax Rate21.0%
Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input)+3.0%
DCF Horizon5 years explicit + fade
Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM)×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S)
Quality Score0/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF)
SMA 50$5.41 (Market Anchor value)
SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid$5.63
Bollinger Width / SMA20693.5% (drives anchor stability)
Net Debt$0.0B
Peers used for multiples: ASX, PDD, TSM, VALE (filtered from 8 ETF-co-members; sector bias active)
Model Conviction
32%
20-Day Fair Value
≈ by Aug 21, 2026
$6.72
α +2.5% rank 31%
40-Day Fair Value
≈ by Sep 21, 2026
$6.71
α +2.3% rank 31%
60-Day Fair Value
≈ by Oct 20, 2026
$6.31
α -3.7% rank 31%
MethodImplied PriceWeightDetail
DCF n/a 0%
DDM (Gordon) $3.45 0%
Peer P/E n/a 0%
Peer EV/EBITDA n/a 0%
Peer P/B n/a 0%
Peer P/S n/a 0%
Market Anchor (SMA50) $5.41 100% stability 78% (BB-width)
Options Expected (B-L 30d) n/a 0%
As of 2026-07-23 · updated
Info
Exchange
XNYS
Market Cap
$6.9B

Ultrapar Participacoes SA engages in the investment of its own capital in services, commercial, and industrial activities, through the subscription or acquisition of shares of other companies. The company's business segments include: i) Ultragaz distributes LPG in the segments: bulk, comprising condominiums, trade, services, industries, and agribusiness; and bottled, mainly comprising residential consumers. ii) Ipiranga, the majority revenue generating segment, engages in the distribution and sale of oil-related products to service stations that operate under the Ipiranga brand throughout Braz…

Summary
—
composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.

Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.

Chart
Seasonality
MonthAvg ReturnYears of Data
Jan +3.47% 23
Feb -0.05% 23
Mar +2.14% 23
Apr +1.99% 23
May -2.39% 23
Jun +1.19% 23
Jul +1.65% 23
Aug +0.28% 22
Sep -0.73% 22
Oct +0.70% 22
Nov +3.92% 22
Dec +1.32% 22
Technical Indicators

Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.

Trend Indicators
  • SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
  • EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
  • MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
  • ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
  • +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
  • RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
  • Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
  • Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.

Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.

Volume & Volatility
  • Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
  • OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
  • Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
  • ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
  • HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.

Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →

Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $5.72
SMA 50: $5.42
SMA 200: $4.86
Current: $6.56
EMA 12: $6.11
EMA 26: $5.76
MACD: 0.3446 | Signal: 0.0899
BULLISH
ADX (14): 34.73
TREND
+DI: 46.47
−DI: 19.30
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 82.18
OVERBOUGHT
Stoch %K: 98.19
Stoch %D: 96.01
Williams %R: 0.00
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $6.83
BB Lower: $4.60
NEUTRAL
OBV: 94,643,500
Vol SMA 20: 4,493,246
Vol ROC: -29.80%
ATR: $0.17
True Range: $0.09
HV 20: 31.2%
HV 30: 30.6%
HV 60: 34.8%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-07-25T00:00:00 – 2026-07-23T00:00:00
AI Analysis

Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.

Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.

News
Options Activity
IV Rank (30D)
43.79
IV Rank (7D)
43.79
Avg IV
106.1%
Straddle (30D)
$1.65
Straddle (7D)
$1.65
P/C Volume
0.03
Spread Scanner GPU
Full Algorithm Docs ↗

Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →

Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)

score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.

Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)

RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.

Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
  • RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
  • MACD crossover + histogram trend
  • Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
  • Stochastic %K <20 / >80
  • Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
  • Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
  • Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
  • BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
  • IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
  • IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
  • Min open interest across all legs
  • OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05

score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →

Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.

Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.

Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Metric:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol points

How much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.

  • Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
  • Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
  • Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
  • Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each side

Which side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.

  • Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
  • Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
  • Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
  • Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together

Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:

  • High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
  • Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
  • Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d —
— pts EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —
30 DTE / 10d —
— pts EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —

Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.

Volatility Surface

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.

Volatility Smile

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.

IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
Beta (1Y vs SPY)
0.79
Correlation (SPY)
27.8%
R²
0.08
Ann. Volatility
36.1%
SPY Volatility
12.7%

Low volatility - stock moves less than market

Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-06-30

Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.

  • Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
  • Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
  • % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
  • Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.

Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.

162 filers62,688,575 shares$328.69M value
# Filer Shares Value % of Total % of Float Period
1 Naman Capital Ltda 12,727,222 $63.68M 19.37% — 2026-03-31
2 GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC Custodian 5,513,736 $30.38M 9.24% — 2026-03-31
3 BlackRock, Inc. Custodian 3,940,096 $21.71M 6.61% — 2026-03-31
4 RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC 3,740,700 $20.61M 6.27% — 2026-03-31
5 AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC 3,715,079 $20.47M 6.23% — 2026-03-31
6 MORGAN STANLEY Custodian 4,947,134 $18.65M 5.67% — 2025-12-31
7 Qube Research & Technologies Ltd 2,451,522 $13.51M 4.11% — 2026-03-31
8 UBS Group AG Custodian 1,950,018 $10.74M 3.27% — 2026-03-31
9 MARSHALL WACE, LLP Custodian 1,761,909 $9.71M 2.95% — 2026-03-31
10 BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ Custodian 1,580,310 $8.71M 2.65% — 2026-03-31
11 MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC Custodian 1,431,044 $7.89M 2.40% — 2026-03-31
12 JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian 1,316,009 $7.25M 2.21% — 2026-03-31
13 DEUTSCHE BANK AG\ Custodian 1,139,646 $6.28M 1.91% — 2026-03-31
14 TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP 946,121 $5.21M 1.59% — 2026-03-31
15 DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP Custodian 945,625 $5.21M 1.59% — 2026-03-31
16 JPMORGAN CHASE & CO Custodian 968,997 $5.17M 1.57% — 2026-03-31
17 ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP 927,216 $5.11M 1.55% — 2026-03-31
18 CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian 918,030 $5.06M 1.54% — 2026-03-31
19 Kapitalo Investimentos Ltda 915,468 $5.04M 1.53% — 2026-03-31
20 LONGFELLOW INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO LLC 534,513 $2.95M 0.90% — 2026-03-31
21 SPX Gestao de Recursos Ltda 519,126 $2.86M 0.87% — 2026-03-31
22 Optiver Holding B.V. 453,455 $2.50M 0.76% — 2026-03-31
23 HSBC HOLDINGS PLC Custodian 450,668 $2.48M 0.76% — 2026-03-31
24 D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian 369,768 $2.04M 0.62% — 2026-03-31
25 Creative Planning 369,474 $2.04M 0.62% — 2026-03-31
2 filers$16.53K notional
# Filer Notional Value % of Total Period
1 SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian $9.92K 60.00% 2026-03-31
2 GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian $6.61K 40.00% 2026-03-31
# Filer Notional Value % of Total Period
Insider Activity
Latest: 2026-06-23
Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
Filed Reporter Role Action Shares Avg Price Net $ Link
2026-06-23 Leonardo Remiao Linden CEO Ipiranga Grant (A) +43,913 RSU — EDGAR
2026-06-09 Decio de Sampaio Amaral CEO Hidrovias Disp (D) −47,294 — EDGAR
2026-04-28 Marina Guimaraes Moreira Mascarenhas Legal Officer Grant (A) +10,069 RSU — EDGAR
2026-04-28 Fulvius Alexandre Pereira Tomelin CEO Ultracargo Grant (A) +23,166 RSU — EDGAR
2026-04-28 Alexandre Mendes Palhares CFO and IRO Grant (A) +25,798 RSU — EDGAR
2026-04-28 Julio Cesar Nogueira Financial Officer Ultragaz Grant (A) +10,267 RSU — EDGAR
2026-04-28 Tabajara Bertelli Costa CEO Ultragaz Grant (A) +37,908 RSU — EDGAR
2026-04-28 Manuella Carvalho Campos de Oliveira People Officer Grant (A) +9,082 RSU — EDGAR
2026-04-28 Rodrigo de Almeida Pizzinatto Chief Executive Officer Grant (A) +68,445 RSU — EDGAR
2026-04-28 Andre Gustavo Zaia Financial Officer Ultracargo Grant (A) +8,253 RSU — EDGAR
2026-04-28 Pedro Guedes Rabelo Financial Officer Ipiranga Grant (A) +9,674 RSU — EDGAR
2026-04-28 Fernanda Teves de Souza Risk, Integrity & Audit Offic. Grant (A) +8,760 RSU — EDGAR
2026-04-22 Andre Gustavo Zaia Financial Officer Ultracargo Award (A) +9,111 — EDGAR
2026-04-22 Andre Saleme Hachem CFO and IRO Hidrovias Award (A) +40,275 — EDGAR
2026-04-22 Rodrigo de Almeida Pizzinatto Chief Executive Officer Award (A) +134,638 — EDGAR
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
Insider Holdings
10 insiders · @ $6.56
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
# Insider Role Shares Disclosed Exposure Lifetime OM Net Filings Last Filed
1 Rodrigo de Almeida Pizzinatto Chief Executive Officer 658,714 $4.32M $0 2 2026-04-28
2 Marcos M Lutz Director 636,468 $4.18M $0 2 2026-04-22
3 Tabajara Bertelli Costa CEO Ultragaz 482,849 $3.17M $0 2 2026-04-28
4 Julio Cesar Nogueira Financial Officer Ultragaz 326,486 $2.14M $0 2 2026-04-28
5 Leonardo Remiao Linden CEO Ipiranga 317,135 $2.08M $0 2 2026-06-23
6 Decio de Sampaio Amaral CEO Hidrovias 159,432 $1.05M $0 2 2026-06-09
7 Pedro Guedes Rabelo Financial Officer Ipiranga 87,898 $576.6K $0 2 2026-04-28
8 Andre Saleme Hachem CFO and IRO Hidrovias 65,460 $429.4K $0 1 2026-04-22
9 Fernanda Teves de Souza Risk, Integrity & Audit Offic. 57,214 $375.3K $0 2 2026-04-28
10 Andre Gustavo Zaia Financial Officer Ultracargo 9,111 $59.8K $0 2 2026-04-28
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
ETF Holders
# ETF Provider Weight $ Exposure ETF AUM As Of
Fundamentals

Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.

Metrics
  • Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
  • Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
  • Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
  • Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
  • Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
  • YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
  • Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
  • Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.

TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.