Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
50/50 line44%Susie Wiles
Line nearest 50/50
44%
Runner-up
44%
Biggest 24h move+4 pts
44%
24h volume
$25K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noRic Grenell
66%
+1
Susie Wiles
44%
+4
Mike Waltz
42%
+8
Pete Hegseth
36%
+2
Amy Gleason
32%
-1
Tilman Fertitta
30%
-1
Doug Collins
26%
-1
Mike Huckabee
20%
-11
Linda McMahon
19%
Kash Patel
18%
-2
Brooke Rollins
17%
+2
Chris Wright
16%
+1
Howard Lutnick
15%
+5
+ 14 more in the table below.
Odds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
Where the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Kash PatelYES $0 · NO $5K · 4 orders · biggest $1K
- Pete HegsethYES $0 · NO $5K · 4 orders · biggest $2K
- Susie WilesYES $0 · NO $5K · 1 orders · biggest $5K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kash Patel | NO | 80¢ | $1K | |
| Kash Patel | NO | 80¢ | $1K | |
| Kash Patel | NO | 80¢ | $1K | |
| Kash Patel | NO | 80¢ | $1K | |
| Pete Hegseth | NO | 70¢ | $2K | |
| Pete Hegseth | NO | 67¢ | $1K | |
| Pete Hegseth | NO | 68¢ | $1K | |
| Pete Hegseth | NO | 75¢ | $1K | |
| Susie Wiles | NO | 65¢ | $5K |
All outcomes
28| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ric Grenell | 66% | +1.0 | $1 | $2K |
| Susie Wiles | 44% | +4.5 | $5K | $119K |
| Mike Waltz | 42% | +8.0 | $55 | $286 |
| Pete Hegseth | 36% | +1.5 | $4K | $497K |
| Amy Gleason | 32% | -1.0 | $156 | $13K |
| Tilman Fertitta | 30% | -1.0 | $67 | $169 |
| Doug Collins | 26% | -1.0 | $127 | $8K |
| Mike Huckabee | 20% | -11.0 | $159 | $8K |
| Linda McMahon | 19% | — | $49 | $9K |
| Kash Patel | 18% | -1.5 | $9K | $400K |
| Brooke Rollins | 17% | +2.0 | $6 | $4K |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 16% | — | $96 | $93K |
| Chris Wright | 16% | +1.0 | $12 | $17K |
| Howard Lutnick | 15% | +5.0 | $226 | $99K |
| Peter Navarro | 15% | — | $8 | $4K |
| Scott Turner | 14% | -3.0 | $10 | $3K |
| Tom Homan | 14% | — | $29 | $10K |
| Russell Vought | 14% | — | $37 | $4K |
| John Ratcliffe | 14% | — | $16 | $7K |
| Sean Duffy | 13% | -1.0 | $6 | $8K |
| Jamieson Greer | 12% | +1.0 | $7 | $3K |
| Doug Burgum | 11% | +2.1 | $15 | $10K |
| Brendan Carr | 11% | -2.8 | $38 | $3K |
| Mehmet Oz | 10% | +1.0 | $8 | $9K |
| Marco Rubio | 10% | +0.8 | $4K | $82K |
| Lee Zeldin | 8% | -1.4 | $15 | $7K |
| Scott Bessent | 7% | — | $922 | $46K |
| Stephen Miller | 6% | -2.3 | $226 | $37K |