What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 14%, implying a 14% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 03, 2027 (63d) All outcomes: Closest Senate race in 2026? Polls & election odds

chance of YES14% -1.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

4–17%

30d +60 pts · 7d +0 pts

24h volume

18.8K

$1 contracts

Open interest

129.5K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$12K

36% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Iowa14%7.3K

Maine8%4.2K

Texas8%12.2K

Alaska8%16.3K

Ohio7%3.7K

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 10:30 AM ET	NO	87¢	1,500	$1K
Oct 29, 11:07 AM ET	NO	91¢	7,235	$7K
Oct 23, 12:19 AM ET	YES	14¢	10,000	$1K
Oct 22, 8:26 PM ET	YES	14¢	8,871	$1K
Oct 20, 10:30 AM ET	YES	14¢	12,300	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.