kalshi Elections

Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

Marco Rubio
Closes Nov 07, 2028 (826d) 24h volume 6.1K Open interest 2.4M Event 2028 Republican presidential nominee
30%
implied YES probability
+1.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 31% · Low 24% · 7d -3.2pp · 30d 0.0pp
31%24%

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing Marco Rubio's chances of being the Republican nominee for President in 2028 at a 30% probability, reflected in a YES price of 0.30. This assessment is informed by known facts such as Rubio's political experience and reputation within the party, as well as his potential appeal to certain segments of the Republican base. The current market price does not reflect any specific endorsements or developments that may have occurred recently, but rather a general consensus among participants about Rubio's likelihood of securing the nomination. Any significant changes in Rubio's campaign momentum, such as a notable endorsement or a major policy announcement, could potentially drive the YES price up if they improve his chances of winning the nomination. Conversely, negative developments, like a controversy or a decline in public support, could cause the price to decrease.
Generated Jul 26, 2026

Top of book

BidSizeAskSize
30.0¢ 6924 31.0¢ 39083
29.0¢ 57238 32.0¢ 57149
28.0¢ 1124 33.0¢ 5275
27.0¢ 2456 34.0¢ 442
26.0¢ 651 35.0¢ 3777
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 30.5¢

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.