kalshi
Elections
Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
Thomas Massie
1%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 3% ·
Low 1%
· 7d 0.0pp
· 30d -26.3pp
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market is currently indicating a 1% probability that Thomas Massie will be the nominee for the Presidency of the Republican party in 2028. This assessment is informed by known facts such as Massie's current role as a Representative from Kentucky and his history of running for office, including a failed bid for the Republican nomination in 2016. The market price would likely increase if there were significant endorsements or support from prominent Republicans, or if Massie were to announce a presidential exploratory committee. Conversely, the price could decrease if other candidates enter the race or if Massie's political fortunes decline. As of now, the market is not pricing in any major changes that would significantly impact the likelihood of Massie becoming the nominee.
Generated Jul 28, 2026
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1¢ | 20849 | 1.3¢ | 99801 | |
| 1.0¢ | 19529 | 1.4¢ | 28644 | |
| 0.9¢ | 2926 | 1.5¢ | 30109 | |
| 0.8¢ | 12212 | 1.6¢ | 35505 | |
| 0.7¢ | 11107 | 1.7¢ | 6043 |
Spread 0.2¢ · Mid 1.2¢
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.