What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 99%, implying a 99% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 01, 2026 (1d) All outcomes: How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

chance of YES99% +2.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

64–99%

· 7d +3 pts

24h volume

13.3K

$1 contracts

Open interest

55.1K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$5K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 4:56 PM ET	YES	99¢	1,727	$2K
Oct 28, 11:46 PM ET	YES	99¢	1,069	$1K
Oct 28, 11:21 PM ET	YES	99¢	1,032	$1K
Oct 27, 3:30 PM ET	YES	99¢	1,247	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.