P PolymarketPolitics & Elections

Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?

Enriched Uranium Surrender
Settles Jan 01, 2027 (73d) All outcomes: What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

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chance of YES14% +9.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
4–17%
30d +0 pts · 7d +0 pts
24h volume
$12.2K
USDC traded
Open interest
$168.0K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

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Other outcomes in this event

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)14%$294
Dilution of Iran's Uranium12%$461
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)12%—
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium10%—
Iran Reconstruction Funding9%—

How it settles

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