What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Enriched Uranium Surrender

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (175d) 24h volume $77 Open interest $43.4K Event What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

12%

implied YES probability

Last 16 days · High 24% · Low 12% · 7d -13.8pp

Rules

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.