What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 19%, implying a 19% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (175d) 24h volume $24 Open interest $43.4K Event What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

19%

implied YES probability

+0.5pp 24h

Last 16 days · High 30% · Low 19% · 7d -28.3pp

Rules

Open on Polymarket

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.