GFL GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
XNYS
46.20
Delayed
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
GFL
$46.20
—
What changed
Recent filings, trades and movesKey stats
$46.20
- 52-Week Range
- $33.33 – $46.77
- YTD
- +7.74%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 62.06
- Straddle Price
- $6.78
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.44
- Market Cap
- $20.2B
- Open
- $46.50
- Day Range
- $45.99 – $46.52
- Volume
- 1,254,473
- Prev Close
- $46.32
Fair Value
MODEL: SHORT
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.90% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.86 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.18% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 8.28% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +40.8pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.2B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -2.5% |
| Book / Price | 31.1% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 20.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 4.5% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.99 |
| Quality Score | 0/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $43.20 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $44.59 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 10.4% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $5.3B |
| Market Cap | $18B |
Peers used for multiples: AEP, CLH, CWST, DUK, NEE, RSG, WCN, WM
60-Day Conviction
61%
20-Day Fair Value
≈ by Dec 8, 2026
$46.69
α +1.1%
rank 63%
conviction
69%
40-Day Fair Value
≈ by Jan 6, 2027
$46.37
α +0.4%
rank 63%
conviction
15%
60-Day Fair Value
≈ by Feb 4, 2027
$45.05
α -2.5%
rank 63%
conviction
61%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $-6.88 | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | $185.22 | 6% | median 29.5× · 8 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $12.42 | 7% | median 15.6× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/B | $62.86 | 9% | median 4.4× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/S | $31.74 | 9% | median 3.5× · 8 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $43.20 | 46% | stability 98% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $46.13 | 23% | 24 strikes · skew +0.25 |
As of 2026-11-09 · updated
Related
About
- Industry (SIC)
- REFUSE SYSTEMS (4953) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $20.2B
- Employees
- 17,000
- List Date
- 2020-03-03
- CIK
- 0001780232
- Homepage
- https://www.gflenv.com
GFL Environmental Inc is an environmental services company. Its offerings include non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure, soil remediation, and liquid waste management services. Its solid waste management business line, which generates the majority of the revenue, consists of the collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal of non-hazardous solid waste. Its Environmental Services business line includes liquid waste and soil remediation. The company's geographical segments are Canada and the United States. The company derives the majority of its revenue from the U…
Summary
—
composite
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No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.76% | -12.95% | 5.11% | 0.41% | -3.34% | 0.16% | -1.47% |
| Feb | 9.30% | -12.66% | -2.44% | 2.94% | 3.89% | 3.51% | 0.76% |
| Mar | 10.46% | 11.40% | 12.33% | -2.90% | 3.89% | -7.72% | 4.58% |
| Apr | -7.03% | -6.54% | 5.13% | -7.72% | 4.46% | -7.92% | -3.27% |
| May | -0.97% | 1.70% | -1.36% | -1.22% | 1.18% | -12.88% | -2.26% |
| Jun | -4.72% | -16.32% | 5.12% | 12.09% | 0.70% | 7.20% | 0.68% |
| Jul | 8.33% | 6.63% | -11.85% | 0.34% | 1.78% | 10.36% | 2.60% |
| Aug | 1.97% | 1.96% | -5.12% | 7.98% | 0.52% | 0.69% | 1.33% |
| Sep | 6.63% | -13.36% | -2.13% | -4.80% | -4.63% | 0.80% | -2.91% |
| Oct | 9.94% | 4.45% | -7.89% | 5.24% | -6.30% | 11.82% | 2.88% |
| Nov | -7.19% | 9.16% | -0.73% | 13.28% | 3.88% | 0.43%* | 3.14% |
| Dec | 3.05% | -0.92% | 16.67% | -4.54% | -3.81% | -- | 2.09% |
| Total | 33.48% | -28.32% | 9.65% | 20.37% | 1.44% | 3.49% | 6.69% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $44.78
SMA 50: $43.27
SMA 200: $40.86
Current: $46.20
EMA 12: $45.41
EMA 26: $44.50
MACD: 0.9037 | Signal: 0.0894
BULLISH
ADX (14): 15.93
RANGE
+DI: 21.35
−DI: 16.66
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 61.43
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 89.51
Stoch %D: 82.94
Williams %R: -11.98
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $46.96
BB Lower: $42.60
NEUTRAL
OBV: -30,359,700
Vol SMA 20: 5,089,547
Vol ROC: -80.63%
ATR: $1.27
True Range: $0.53
HV 20: 26.2%
HV 30: 27.3%
HV 60: 29.8%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-11-08T00:00:00 – 2026-11-06T00:00:00
AI Analysis
GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: NEUTRAL with Confidence Level: 6/10
Investment Thesis: GFL Environmental presents a mixed technical and fundamental picture. While the stock trades above all major moving averages with bullish MACD momentum and a recent 10% dividend increase, it faces significant near-term headwinds from the $6.4B SECURE Waste acquisition announced on April 13, which triggered negative market reaction. The overbought technical setup (Stochastic at 93.18, Bollinger Bands upper band at $43.75 vs. current price $43.85) combined with declining volume (-38.34% rate of change) suggests potential near-term consolidation or pullback before sustainable upside can resume.
Key Drivers: Dividend growth signal, acquisition for strategic expansion, analyst favorability, defensive beta profile
Primary Risks: Acquisition integration execution, negative sentiment from deal announcement, overbought momentum, declining volume participation
Recent News Sentiment Impact: Mixed signals dominate. The April 13 SECURE Waste acquisition ($6.4B) generated immediate negative sentiment despite being strategically significant, causing stock to drop on announcement day. However, the April 2 dividend increase announcement and inclusion in analyst "favorites" lists provide positive fundamental support. The sentiment appears conflicted between growth strategy execution concerns and dividend sustainability confidence.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction
Short-term (1-4 weeks): BULLISH with caution
- Price at $43.85 sits above SMA 20 ($42.32) and SMA 50 ($42.05), establishing uptrend structure
- EMA 12 ($42.77) above EMA 26 ($42.40) confirms active bullish bias
- However, price is touching Bollinger Bands upper band ($43.75), limiting immediate upside
Medium-term (1-3 months): NEUTRAL to slightly BULLISH
- Price above SMA 200 ($40.68) by +7.8% suggests longer-term uptrend framework intact
- ADX at 16.78 indicates weak trend strength (readings below 20 signal range-bound behavior)
- +DI (17.73) exceeds -DI (16.46) marginally, suggesting directional bias is minimal
Long-term (3-12 months): BULLISH
- Consistent positioning above 200-day moving average establishes bullish secular backdrop
- Dividend expansion and acquisition activity indicate management confidence in long-term trajectory
Support/Resistance Levels
| Level | Type | Distance from Current | Significance | |-------|------|----------------------|--------------| | $43.75 | Resistance | -$0.10 (0.2%) | Bollinger Bands upper band - immediate ceiling | | $42.32 | Support | -$1.53 (3.5%) | SMA 20 / Bollinger Bands middle - key short-term support | | $42.05 | Support | -$1.80 (4.1%) | SMA 50 - intermediate support zone | | $40.89 | Support | -$2.96 (6.8%) | Bollinger Bands lower band / near SMA 200 - major technical floor | | $40.68 | Support | -$3.17 (7.2%) | SMA 200 - psychological long-term support |
Critical Observation: The stock is pinned near the upper Bollinger Band, creating a technically constrained setup. A break above $43.75 could signal further upside to $45.00+, but failure to hold above $42.32 would confirm pullback toward $40.89.
Momentum Signals
RSI (14): 60.25 - NEUTRAL (Healthy momentum zone)
- Reading sits in neutral zone (30-70 range), indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions
- Position slightly elevated but not yet warning of exhaustion
- Supports continuation of trend but without excessive overheating
Stochastic Oscillators - SEVERE OVERBOUGHT DIVERGENCE
- %K at 93.18 (extremely overbought, well above 80 threshold)
- %D at 90.69 (both components at extreme highs)
- Williams %R at -6.57 (indicating near upper extreme of range)
- Signal Conflict: RSI is moderate (60.25) while Stochastic is extreme (93.18)
- This divergence suggests short-term pullback risk despite moderate RSI reading
- Stochastic overbought often precedes 1-3 day pullbacks in mean-reverting patterns
MACD - BULLISH MOMENTUM
- MACD line (0.37) above Signal line (0.16) with positive histogram (0.21)
- Confirms upward momentum structure is intact
- No crossover signals yet, but histogram expansion suggests strengthening momentum
- Assessment: Bullish, but diverging from Stochastic extremes
Momentum Summary: Conflicting signals. MACD bullish, RSI healthy, but Stochastic overbought creates short-term pullback risk.
Bollinger Bands Analysis
- Upper Band: $43.75 | Middle: $42.32 | Lower Band: $40.89 | Width: 6.76%
- Position: Price at $43.85 is ABOVE upper band (0.2%), indicating overbought condition
- Band Width: 6.76% represents moderate expansion from compression, but not extreme volatility
- Interpretation: Stock has pushed beyond upper band boundary, typically mean-reverting event. Pullback to middle band ($42.32) would be normal consolidation pattern, representing -3.5% downside from current levels.
Volume Analysis
Major Volume Concern:
- Volume Rate of Change: -38.34% (sharp decline in trading activity)
- Volume SMA 20: 3,480,433 shares (baseline for comparison)
- Interpretation: Declining volume on upside move raises sustainability questions
- Rallies on declining volume often lack conviction
- Suggests institutional participation weakening
- Risk of "weak hands" ownership vulnerable to quick reversals
On-Balance Volume (OBV):
- OBV at -42,443,236.76 (highly negative cumulative volume balance)
- Critical Signal: Despite price at highs, OBV remains deeply negative
- Indicates prior selling pressure exceeded buying pressure cumulatively
- Suggests current rally may have limited conviction from accumulation standpoint
- Classic divergence between price and volume confirming institutional skepticism
Volume Assessment: Deteriorating volume structure is the most concerning technical signal. The -38.34% volume rate of change combined with negative OBV suggests the current rally lacks institutional backing and is vulnerable to quick pullback.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary
| Date | Headline | Sentiment | Relevance | Impact | |------|----------|-----------|-----------|--------| | 2026-10-12 | FDS Hold Recommendation (Zacks) | POSITIVE | Low - Different stock | None (Data error likely) | | 2026-04-19 | Venture Global Among Week Losers | NEGATIVE | Medium - GFL mentioned | Reflects April 13 acquisition reaction | | 2026-04-13 | GFL Acquires SECURE Waste for $6.4B | NEGATIVE | HIGH | Stock dropped on announcement | | 2026-04-02 | 10% Dividend Increase Announced | POSITIVE | HIGH | Signals confidence, positive catalyst | | 2026-01-02 | Quarterly Dividend Announced | POSITIVE | Medium | Dividend sustainability confirmed | | 2025-12-08 | 3 Analyst Favorites (GFL included) | POSITIVE | Medium | Analyst interest positive |
Sentiment Assessment: MIXED (6 headlines: 3 positive, 2 negative, 1 neutral-by-proxy)
Aggregate Sentiment Score: SLIGHTLY POSITIVE with material caveats
Recent Sentiment Composition:
- Positive drivers: Dividend expansion, analyst favorability, dividend consistency
- Negative drivers: $6.4B acquisition generating market skepticism, stock drop on deal announcement
Critical Timeline Alignment:
- April 13 SECURE Waste acquisition announcement → negative reaction documented April 19
- April 2 dividend increase preceded acquisition → positive signal before deal announcement
- Market narrative: Positive fundamentals (dividends, analyst picks) contradicted by M&A execution risk
Catalyst Identification
**Immediate
Generated
News
All GFL news →
SECURE acquisition integration drives 27% revenue growth and margin expansion.
Canada’s GFL Environmental Inc. is in the final stages of evaluating takeover bids and suitors have been given until Nov. 9 to submit their final offers.
GFL Options Activity & IV Rank
GFL IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: 63.2%
7-DTE IV: 114.4%
Expected Move: $6.78
7-DTE Move: $5.62
Days to Exp: 32 (2026-12-11)
Options Flow · All expiries
Call Volume: 32,386
Put Volume: 14,291
P/C Volume: 0.441
BULLISH
Call OI: 552,588
Put OI: 86,948
P/C OI: 0.157
Total OI: 639,536
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $3.52
ATM Put: $3.25
Call %: 7.6%
Put %: 7.0%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 46,677
Chain OI: 639,536
Last Updated: 11/9/2026
Spread Scanner
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Calendars: the long leg is valued at the short leg’s expiration (Black-Scholes at its current IV) across the range of prices the short leg’s IV implies, giving the best-case profit (R/R = that over the debit) and P(profit).
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Scanning bull put, bear call, iron condor and calendar spreads…
Dealer Positioning
TYPICAL γ
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 72nd percentile of this name's own daily history, within its typical range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Gamma percentile
72%
vs own history
GEX tilt
+0.85
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.82
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.83
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt +0.82: the estimated dealer exposure leans positive, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
Charm tilt -0.83: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably as time passes and options approach expiry.
? What is this?
· 88 ATM contracts, 548k total OI
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
ATM 97.7% / Wing —
30 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
ATM 62.3% / Wing —
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Loading the implied volatility surface…
Volatility Smile
Loading the implied volatility smile…
IV Rank (7 DTE)94.8HighNov 9
IV Rank (30 DTE)62.1MediumNov 9
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$6.78Nov 9
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: 0.1724
Alpha: 9.54%
Correlation: 0.0795
R-Squared: 0.6%
Stock Volatility: 29.8%
Market Volatility: 13.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Notable investors who own GFL
4 of 37 tracked investors
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millennium Management Hedge fund Izzy Englander | $85.7M | #395 of 3716 | -48.6% | 13F | |
| Point72 Hedge fund Steve Cohen | $6.4M | #908 of 1945 | -76.6% | 13F | |
| Rockefeller Capital Management Family office Rockefeller family | $2.6M | #1255 of 4729 | +60.7% | 13F | |
| Soros Fund Management Family office George Soros, Robert Soros, Jonathan Soros | $342K | #242 of 251 | -98.2% | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
GFL Institutional Ownership (13F)
Filings for 2026-06-30 · 155 already for 2026-09-30
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 383,525,690 (as of 2025-12-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
10 filers$43.29M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $26.62M | 61.49% | 2026-09-30 |
| 2 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $9.09M | 21.00% | 2026-09-30 |
| 3 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $3.40M | 7.85% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | SIG North Trading, ULC | $1.82M | 4.20% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Barclays PLC Custodian | $1.24M | 2.87% | 2026-09-30 |
| 6 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $562.89K | 1.30% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $345.83K | 0.80% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | EQUITEC PROPRIETARY MARKETS, LLC | $209.15K | 0.48% | 2026-09-30 |
| 9 | Walleye Capital LLC | $3.68K | <0.01% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | FNY Investment Advisers, LLC | $0 | 0.00% | 2026-09-30 |
8 filers$7.40M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $2.45M | 33.15% | 2026-09-30 |
| 2 | SIG North Trading, ULC | $2.01M | 27.16% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $1.66M | 22.51% | 2026-09-30 |
| 4 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $584.96K | 7.91% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $426.76K | 5.77% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $165.56K | 2.24% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | Walleye Capital LLC | $51.51K | 0.70% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | WOLVERINE ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC | $41.78K | 0.56% | 2026-09-30 |
GFL Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)
Latest: 2025-12-09
? Form 144 Guide
Last 30d:
0 filings
· Last 90d:
0 filings
What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.
Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | Soffera William | Officer | 44,642 | $1.97M | 2025-12-09 | Wells Fargol Clearing Services | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-09-25 | Luke Pelosi | EVP & CFO | 50,926 | $2.37M | 2025-09-25 | CIBC Wood Gundy | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-09-22 | Patrick Dovigi | President, CEO and Director | 312,301 | $14.51M | 2025-09-22 | J.P. Morgan Securities LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-05-30 | Luke Pelosi | EVP & CFO | 107,803 | $5.36M | 2025-05-30 | CIBC Wood Gundy | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-05-30 | Elizabeth Joy Grahek | EVP, Strategic Initiatives | 11,000 | $546.6K | 2025-05-30 | CIBC Wood Gundy | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-05-22 | Patrick Dovigi | Director, President and CEO | 250,000 | $12.39M | 2025-05-22 | J.P. Morgan Securities LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2025-05-09 | Patrick Dovigi | Director, President and CEO | 250,000 | $12.61M | 2025-05-09 | J.P. Morgan Securities LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-09-06 | Patrick Dovigi | Director, President and CEO | 600,000 | $24.37M | 2024-09-06 | J.P. Morgan Securities LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-08-08 | Patrick Dovigi | Director, President and CEO | 600,000 | $23.92M | 2024-08-08 | J.P. Morgan Securities LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2024-03-25 | Gregory Gerald Yorston | Affiliate | 28,794 | $1.02M | 2024-03-25 | J.P. Morgan Securities LLC | — | EDGAR |
Notice value is the aggregate market value the filer states they intend to sell — not a confirmed transaction. Compare to Insider Activity (Form 4) to see which planned sales actually executed. Market-wide feed: Planned sales (Form 144).
ETF Holders
66 ETFs hold GFL
25 shown · $870.94M total exposure · 0.09% AUM-weighted avg weight
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VXUS Vanguard Total International Stock ETF | Vanguard | 0.03% | $215.4M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 2 | VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | Vanguard | 0.04% | $141.5M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 3 | CGUS Capital Group Core Equity ETF | Capitalgroup | 1.05% | $124.4M | $11.8B | 2026-11-05 |
| 4 | IWR iShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.12% | $68.9M | $56.9B | 2026-11-06 |
| 5 | IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.04% | $35.4M | $82.9B | 2026-11-06 |
| 6 | EWC iShares MSCI Canada ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.46% | $35.0M | $7.5B | 2026-11-06 |
| 7 | VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US ETF | Vanguard | 0.04% | $34.6M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 8 | SCHF Schwab International Equity ETF | Nport | 0.04% | $24.5M | — | 2026-08-31 |
| 9 | IWS iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.16% | $23.3M | $14.8B | 2026-11-06 |
| 10 | IXUS iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.04% | $20.0M | $56.4B | 2026-11-06 |
| 11 | IDEV iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.05% | $17.8M | $33.4B | 2026-11-06 |
| 12 | SPDW State Street® SPDR® Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.04% | $16.3M | $41.0B | 2026-11-05 |
| 13 | NFRA FlexShares STOXX Global Broad Infrastructure Index Fund | Nport | 0.50% | $15.0M | — | 2026-07-31 |
| 14 | IDU iShares U.S. Utilities ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 1.01% | $13.9M | $1.4B | 2026-11-06 |
| 15 | CNEQ Alger Concentrated Equity ETF | Nport | 1.75% | $12.8M | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 16 | VT Vanguard Total World Stock ETF | Vanguard | 0.01% | $12.6M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 17 | IWB iShares Russell 1000 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.02% | $10.6M | $46.6B | 2026-11-06 |
| 18 | SMMD iShares Russell 2500 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.23% | $9.6M | $4.1B | 2026-11-06 |
| 19 | VONV Vanguard Russell 1000 Value ETF | Vanguard | 0.04% | $9.3M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 20 | FXU First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX® Fund | First Trust | 0.84% | $6.3M | $751.6M | 2026-11-06 |
| 21 | ACWX iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.03% | $6.1M | $17.5B | 2026-11-06 |
| 22 | EVX VanEck Environmental Services ETF | VanEck | 4.90% | $4.9M | $99.0M | 2026-11-05 |
| 23 | IWV iShares Russell 3000 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.02% | $4.3M | $19.7B | 2026-11-06 |
| 24 | FNDC Schwab Fundamental International Small Equity ETF | Nport | 0.13% | $4.2M | — | 2026-08-31 |
| 25 | ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.01% | $4.2M | $31.5B | 2026-11-06 |
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Trailing P/E
7.57
TTM Diluted EPS
$6.10
TTM Revenue
$3.36B
TTM Net Income
$2.41B
TTM Op. Cash Flow
$683.10M
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '25 | 2025-12-31 | — | — | — | — |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-06-30 | $1.20B | $197.93M | $0.52 | $219.28M |
| Q1 '25 | 2025-03-31 | $1.08B | $2.37B | $6.05 | $120.57M |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-12-31 | $1.08B | $-159.99M | $-0.47 | $-533.13M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-09-30 | $1.48B | $81.02M | $0.22 | $262.85M |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-06-30 | $1.18B | $-350.63M | $-0.93 | $260.44M |
| Q1 '24 | 2024-03-31 | $1.07B | $-129.26M | $-0.35 | $196.88M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-12-31 | $1.51B | $-107.44M | $-0.29 | $312.10M |
| Q3 '23 | 2023-09-30 | $1.41B | $16.51M | $0.04 | $94.01M |
| Q2 '23 | 2023-06-30 | $1.45B | $220.45M | $0.55 | $194.89M |
| Q1 '23 | 2023-03-31 | $1.33B | $-162.18M | $-0.44 | $142.29M |
| Q4 '22 | 2022-12-31 | $3.05B | $-248.51M | $-0.68 | $572.14M |
Q4 2025 • period ending 2025-12-31 • filed 2026-02-18
Valuation
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
Price Multiples
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
Profitability & Yields
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
Reading the history chart
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
P/E
7.57
P/B
3.25
P/S
5.27
EV/EBITDA
36.97
EV/Sales
6.86
ROE
44.1%
ROA
17.1%
Div Yield
0.11%
FCF Yield
3.86%
Debt/Equity
0.99
Current Ratio
—
Market Cap
$17.71B
as of 2026-11-09
GFL vs Peers
Related companies, largest first| Company | Market cap | P/E | Revenue growth | YTD | IV rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. | $182.4B | 15.7 | +9.6% | +7.9% | 34 |
| DUK Duke Energy Corporation | $99.6B | 19.4 | +6.3% | +9.9% | 19 |
| WM Waste Management, Inc. | $93.9B | 31.1 | +5.2% | +8.7% | 38 |
| RSG Republic Services Inc. | $75.2B | 34.2 | +4.5% | +17.6% | 36 |
| AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc. | $68.9B | 19.2 | +10.9% | +10.7% | 37 |
| WCN Waste Connections, Inc. | $47.3B | 42.6 | +6.3% | +9.2% | 35 |
| GFL GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Votin | $20.2B | 7.6 | −30.0% | +7.7% | 62 |
| CLH Clean Harbors, Inc | $15.0B | 29.0 | +10.1% | +18.6% | 25 |
| CWST Casella Waste Systems Inc | $6.3B | 898.1 | +14.9% | +0.1% | 80 |
| Peer median | $72.0B | 30.1 | +7.9% | +9.6% | 35 |
P/E uses the latest reported trailing-12-month diluted EPS; "—" means no positive earnings or no data.
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
22.25M
SI % of Float
6.83%
Days to Cover
5.88
Short Vol Ratio
17.3%
Free Float
325.79M
Float %
76.8%
Short interest 2026-10-15 • Short volume 2026-11-06 • Float 2026-10-02