PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. Common stock
XNAS
137.83
Delayed
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
PLMR
$137.83
—
Key stats
$137.83
- 52-Week Range
- $100.81 – $147.62
- YTD
- +4.56%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 79.37
- Straddle Price
- $14.55
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.72
- Market Cap
- $3.7B
- Open
- $139.04
- Day Range
- $136.81 – $140.13
- Volume
- 202,411
- Prev Close
- $139.59
Fair Value
+50.0% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.19% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.81 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.25% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.31% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +22.5pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 22.2% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +30.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 12 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.10 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $0.4B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | 20.7% |
| Book / Price | 24.6% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 49.1% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | 47.3% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.00 |
| Quality Score | 5/6 — high quality (12y DCF) |
| Market-Implied Growth | -5.7% (reverse-DCF on current price) |
| SMA 50 | $131.15 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $129.46 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 11.9% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.1B |
| Market Cap | $4B |
Peers used for multiples: CB, HMN, MCY, MU, PGR, RGA, SKWD, WDC
Blended Fair Value
$348.45
Deviation
+50.0%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | $1289.87 | 20% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | $93.07 | 9% | median 11.8× · 8 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | $100.55 | 9% | median 9.2× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/B | $70.30 | 2% | median 2.0× · 8 peers |
| Peer P/S | $51.00 | 6% | median 1.5× · 8 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $131.15 | 35% | stability 90% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $140.29 | 20% | 20 strikes · skew +0.04 |
As of 2026-10-19 · updated
Related
About
- Industry (SIC)
- FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE (6331) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $3.7B
- Employees
- 439
- List Date
- 2019-04-17
- CIK
- 0001761312
- Next Earnings
- 2026-11-05 (After-Close)
- EPS Forecast
- $2.45 (4 est.)
- Headquarters
- La Jolla, CA
- Homepage
- https://plmr.com
Palomar Holdings Inc that provides property and casualty insurance products to individuals and businesses. It provides insurance products serving five categories: Earthquake, Inland Marine and Other Property, Casualty, Fronting, and Crop. Company distribute products through multiple channels, including retail agents, program administrators, wholesale brokers, and partnerships with other insurance companies. The company's Earthquake product generate high premium.
Summary
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composite
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No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 12.77% | -16.02% | 9.02% | 5.65% | 3.34% | -6.24% | 1.42% |
| Feb | -20.14% | 20.59% | 16.94% | 29.01% | 20.21% | -0.41% | 11.03% |
| Mar | -23.22% | 0.79% | -9.06% | 11.09% | 6.93% | -5.61% | -3.18% |
| Apr | 2.69% | -21.08% | -8.25% | -4.28% | 4.68% | 3.19% | -3.84% |
| May | 8.23% | 12.65% | 8.15% | 7.34% | 19.03% | -11.52% | 7.31% |
| Jun | 1.89% | 3.94% | 9.65% | -4.13% | -12.19% | 17.86% | 2.84% |
| Jul | 6.10% | -3.69% | 3.81% | 10.59% | -10.96% | -0.82% | 0.84% |
| Aug | 11.39% | 28.36% | -15.21% | 10.76% | -5.09% | -2.89% | 4.55% |
| Sep | -13.71% | 2.12% | -2.54% | -3.50% | -4.51% | -6.50% | -4.77% |
| Oct | 12.68% | 1.60% | 0.70% | -4.35% | 3.74% | 9.45%* | 3.97% |
| Nov | -19.12% | -29.81% | 14.23% | 22.54% | 9.22% | -- | -0.59% |
| Dec | -9.27% | -26.53% | -5.68% | -3.16% | 10.09% | -- | -6.91% |
| Total | -33.97% | -37.61% | 17.41% | 100.11% | 46.29% | -6.52% | 14.28% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $129.65
SMA 50: $131.29
SMA 200: $125.90
Current: $137.83
EMA 12: $133.88
EMA 26: $132.19
MACD: 1.6879 | Signal: 1.4226
BULLISH
ADX (14): 15.55
RANGE
+DI: 24.62
−DI: 17.41
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 62.47
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 89.58
Stoch %D: 90.81
Williams %R: -14.55
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $140.12
BB Lower: $119.18
NEUTRAL
OBV: 11,178,853
Vol SMA 20: 232,300
Vol ROC: -27.54%
ATR: $3.85
True Range: $3.32
HV 20: 26.8%
HV 30: 26.2%
HV 60: 30.3%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-21T00:00:00 – 2026-10-19T00:00:00
AI Analysis
PLMR Stock Analysis Report
Palomar Holdings, Inc.
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: NEUTRAL (Confidence: 6/10)
Palomar presents a conflicting technical and sentiment picture. The stock benefits from positive news sentiment and strong industry tailwinds in specialty insurance, but technical momentum has deteriorated with a bearish MACD crossover and declining volume. The negative beta (-0.26) provides portfolio diversification benefits but creates uncertainty in bullish market environments.
Key Drivers:
- Positive industry narrative around premium growth and AI-driven margin improvements
- Defensive positioning with inverse market correlation
- Upcoming earnings catalyst (2026-11-05)
Primary Risks:
- Bearish MACD divergence (-1.52 histogram) contradicting positive news
- Significant volume decline (-47.21% rate of change) suggests weakening institutional interest
- Range-bound trading (ADX 14.69) with low momentum conviction
- IV premium elevated 54% vs realized volatility—options market pricing elevated risk
Investment Thesis: Palomar operates in a favorable specialty insurance environment with premium growth and margin expansion themes gaining traction. However, recent technical deterioration—particularly MACD breakdown and volume decline—suggests caution despite positive headlines. The upcoming November earnings could serve as a catalyst for breakout or breakdown, with the options market pricing a 7.1% expected move.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: Overwhelmingly positive (5 of 6 recent headlines bullish). The Oct 5 Zacks article directly recommends buying PLMR, citing growth investor appeal. However, this positive sentiment has NOT lifted the stock decisively above key moving averages, suggesting news-driven enthusiasm may lack follow-through conviction.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction
Short-term (1-4 weeks): SIDEWAYS/WEAKENING
- Price at $130.76 is slightly above SMA 20 ($129.89) but below SMA 50 ($131.07)
- EMA 12 ($128.37) below EMA 26 ($129.48)—early sign of bearish momentum
- ADX (14.69) indicates a range-bound regime with insufficient directional conviction
Medium-term (1-3 months): NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
- Price remains between SMA 50 ($131.07) and SMA 200 ($125.87)
- The stock has not established a clear uptrend despite positive news
- Distance from SMA 50 is minimal ($0.31), suggesting near-term volatility
Long-term (3-12 months): BULLISH BIAS
- Price above SMA 200 ($125.87) by $4.89 (3.9%)
- 200-day MA slope appears positive, supporting longer-term uptrend
- However, momentum deterioration could challenge this if support breaks
Support/Resistance Levels
| Level | Type | Distance | Implication | |-------|------|----------|-------------| | $131.07 | Resistance | +$0.31 | SMA 50 — key pivot; break above confirms uptrend | | $129.89 | Support | -$0.87 | SMA 20 — short-term trend anchor | | $125.87 | Support | -$4.89 | SMA 200 — major longer-term support | | $118.79 | Support | -$11.97 | Lower Bollinger Band — extreme oversold level | | $140.98 | Resistance | +$10.22 | Upper Bollinger Band — multi-week high area |
Critical Observation: The stock is range-bound between $129.89-$131.07. Break above $131.07 targets $140.98 (upper Bollinger Band). Break below $129.89 opens path to $125.87 and $118.79.
Momentum Signals
RSI (14): 52.89 — NEUTRAL
- Perfectly neutral reading (midpoint 50), no overbought or oversold pressure
- Indicates balance between buyers and sellers; room to move in either direction
- Not yet confirming the positive news sentiment through momentum buildup
MACD: -1.52 HISTOGRAM — BEARISH DIVERGENCE
- MACD (-1.10) is BELOW signal line (0.42)
- Histogram (-1.52) indicates accelerating bearish momentum
- Red flag: Despite positive news headlines, momentum is deteriorating
- This is a critical conflict signal—news optimism not supported by momentum
Bollinger Bands: NEUTRAL POSITIONING
- Price at $130.76 is near the middle band ($129.89)
- Band width (17.09) suggests moderate volatility—not in squeeze or extreme expansion
- Price not touching extremes, confirming range-bound trading
Williams %R: -25.48 — MODERATELY STRONG
- Reading between -20 and -50 suggests near-term strength/buying interest
- Not yet oversold (<-80), but shows upside momentum capability
Volume Analysis
Volume Rate of Change: -47.21% — MAJOR RED FLAG
- Volume is collapsing relative to 20-day average (245,452)
- This indicates declining institutional interest and participation
- Low volume on positive news suggests headline-driven retail interest without conviction
On-Balance Volume (OBV): 10,337,301.43
- OBV level is positive but in declining trend (consistent with -47% volume change)
- Suggests accumulation pressure is weakening
Interpretation: The combination of positive news + declining volume is concerning. Without volume confirmation, any price move lacks conviction. This pattern often precedes either capitulation selling or quiet accumulation before breakout—difficult to determine without additional context.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary
| Date | Headline | Sentiment | Relevance | |------|----------|-----------|-----------| | 2026-10-05 | Why Growth Investors Should Buy PLMR Now | POSITIVE | Direct buy recommendation; recent | | 2026-10-02 | Premium Growth and Investment Income | POSITIVE | Sector tailwind; not PLMR-specific | | 2026-10-02 | Lemonade Premium Growth, AI, Better Margins | POSITIVE | Competitor momentum; sector confirmation | | 2026-10-01 | Skyward Expands AV Insurance | POSITIVE | Sector expansion; not PLMR-specific | | 2026-09-03 | Down 1.4% Since Earnings; Can It Rebound? | POSITIVE | Turnaround narrative post-earnings | | 2026-05-29 | High-Risk Insurance Strategy Paying Off | POSITIVE | Historical validation of business model |
Key Themes:
- Premium Growth Narrative — All recent coverage emphasizes strong premium growth in specialty insurance
- AI & Margin Expansion — Technology-driven margin improvements gaining industry traction
- Business Model Validation — PLMR's high-risk underwriting strategy being rewarded
- Sector Momentum — Broader insurance sector benefiting from pricing power and investment income
Sentiment Assessment: POSITIVE (Overall)
- 6 of 6 headlines positive — unanimous bullish coverage
- No negative news — absence of earnings misses, regulatory issues, or downgrades
- Recent Buy Recommendation — Oct 5 Zacks call is most current catalyst
Concern: The uniformity of positive sentiment could indicate consensus bullishness rather than breakthrough discovery. Lack of contrarian or skeptical perspectives may suggest headline exhaustion.
Catalyst Identification
Immediate/Time-Sensitive (1-7 days):
- None identified in current news flow
Near-term (1-4 weeks):
- Earnings Release: November 5, 2026 (40+ days out)
- Expected Move: $14.05 at 42 DTE (10.7% volatility)
- This is the primary catalyst; options market pricing significant move
- Must monitor quarterly trends: premium growth rate, combined ratio, investment income
Medium-term (1-3 months):
- Industry conference cycles and analyst updates
- Potential policy holder expansion announcements
Market Narrative vs. Technical Signals
CRITICAL DIVERGENCE IDENTIFIED:
| Signal | Direction | Strength | |--------|-----------|----------| | News Sentiment | BULLISH | Very Strong (6/6 positive) | | Price Action | NEUTRAL/BEARISH | Weak (range-bound) | | Momentum (MACD) | BEARISH | Accelerating |
Generated
News
All PLMR news →
Earnings History
14 of 18 under expected move
Avg Expected Move
9.74%
Avg Actual Move
5.37%
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-04 | After-Close | 23.76% | 0.43% | 0.02x | Within |
| 2021-05-05 | After-Close | 4.26% | 3.02% | 0.71x | Within |
| 2022-02-16 | After-Close | 6.24% | 1.10% | 0.18x | Within |
| 2023-02-15 | After-Close | 2.38% | 1.66% | 0.70x | Within |
| 2023-05-03 | After-Close | 11.32% | 0.99% | 0.09x | Within |
| 2023-08-02 | After-Close | 9.87% | 3.73% | 0.38x | Within |
| 2023-11-01 | After-Close | 10.17% | 10.05% | 0.99x | Within |
| 2024-02-14 | After-Close | 7.88% | 18.41% | 2.34x | Exceeded |
| 2024-05-02 | After-Close | 11.29% | 3.66% | 0.32x | Within |
| 2024-08-05 | After-Close | 12.41% | 5.37% | 0.43x | Within |
| 2024-11-04 | After-Close | 11.16% | 2.07% | 0.19x | Within |
| 2025-02-12 | After-Close | 10.07% | 14.73% | 1.46x | Exceeded |
| 2025-05-05 | After-Close | 9.09% | 0.41% | 0.05x | Within |
| 2025-08-04 | After-Close | 8.82% | 14.65% | 1.66x | Exceeded |
| 2025-11-06 | After-Close | 8.53% | 8.72% | 1.02x | Exceeded |
| 2026-02-11 | After-Close | 8.39% | 3.52% | 0.42x | Within |
| 2026-05-06 | After-Close | 9.93% | 2.55% | 0.26x | Within |
| 2026-08-04 | After-Close | 9.81% | 1.55% | 0.16x | Within |
Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →
PLMR Options Activity & IV Rank
PLMR IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: 43.7%
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $14.55
7-DTE Move: $14.55
Days to Exp: 32 (2026-11-20)
Options Flow
Call Volume: 18
Put Volume: 13
P/C Volume: 0.722
NEUTRAL
Call OI: 18
Put OI: 10
P/C OI: 0.556
Total OI: 28
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $6.40
ATM Put: $8.15
Call %: 4.6%
Put %: 5.9%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 264
Chain OI: 747
Last Updated: 10/19/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Dealer Positioning
TYPICAL γ
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 68th percentile of this name's own daily history, within its typical range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Gamma percentile
68%
vs own history
GEX tilt
+0.90
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.97
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.96
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt +0.97: the estimated dealer exposure leans positive, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
Charm tilt -0.96: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably as time passes and options approach expiry.
? What is this?
· 5 ATM contracts, 0k total OI
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
No data
30 DTE / 10d
100%
+32.5
pts
EXTREME
ATM 43.7% / Wing 76.2%
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)79.4HighOct 19
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$14.55Oct 19
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: -0.3481
Alpha: 29.93%
Correlation: -0.1273
R-Squared: 1.6%
Stock Volatility: 34.8%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Negative beta - stock moves opposite to market
Negative beta - stock moves opposite to market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Notable investors who own PLMR
3 of 37 tracked investors
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Hedge fund Ken Griffin | $49.5M | #690 of 6285 | +25.1% | 13F | |
| Point72 Hedge fund Steve Cohen | $39.4M | #388 of 1945 | +109.6% | 13F | |
| Rockefeller Capital Management Family office Rockefeller family | $29K | #3601 of 4729 | -34.9% | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
PLMR Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 27,490,124 (as of 2025-12-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
5 filers$4.58M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $1.82M | 39.73% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $1.45M | 31.73% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $581.39K | 12.69% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $417.09K | 9.10% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $309.12K | 6.75% | 2025-09-30 |
2 filers$1.44M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $1.20M | 83.33% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $240.14K | 16.67% | 2026-06-30 |
PLMR Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-09-22Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Mac Armstrong | CEO and Chairman | Sell (S) | −3,500 | $134.98 | -$472.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-11 | Daryl Bradley | Director | Buy (P) | +1 | $131.96 | $135 | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-24 | Mac Armstrong | CEO and Chairman | Sell (S) | −3,500 | $130.60 | -$457.1K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-20 | Jon Christianson | President | Mixed | +492 | $127.75 | -$67.5K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-20 | Jonathan Knutzen | Chief Risk Officer | Mixed | +316 | $127.75 | -$37.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-20 | T Christopher Uchida | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | +739 | $127.74 | -$101.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-04 | Rodolphe Herve | Chief Operating Officer | Mixed | +1,861 | $135.35 | -$163.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-22 | Mac Armstrong | CEO and Chairman | Sell (S) | −3,500 | $137.26 | -$480.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-21 | Jon Christianson | President | Mixed | — | $113.50 | -$156.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-17 | Mac Armstrong | CEO and Chairman | Mixed | +58,009 | $131.66 | -$8.00M | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-06 | Jon Christianson | President | Mixed | — | $106.77 | -$449.3K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-24 | Mac Armstrong | CEO and Chairman | Sell (S) | −3,500 | $112.96 | -$395.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-03 | Martha Notaras | Director | Exer (M) | +1,722 | $58.06 | $100.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-26 | Martha Notaras | Director | Award (A) | +1,304 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-05-26 | Daina Middleton | Director | Award (A) | +1,304 | — | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
PLMR Insider Holdings
14 insiders · @ $137.83
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mac Armstrong | CEO and Chairman | 480,454 | $66.22M | -$68.86M | 88 | 2026-09-22 |
| 2 | Jon Christianson | President | 67,498 | $9.30M | -$14.78M | 77 | 2026-08-20 |
| 3 | Richard H Taketa | Director | 46,030 | $6.34M | $171.2K | 11 | 2026-05-26 |
| 4 | Jonathan Knutzen | Chief Risk Officer | 28,250 | $3.89M | -$960.8K | 29 | 2026-08-20 |
| 5 | T Christopher Uchida | Chief Financial Officer | 17,029 | $2.35M | -$9.54M | 96 | 2026-08-20 |
| 6 | Martha Notaras | Director | 10,896 | $1.50M | $184.9K | 12 | 2026-06-03 |
| 7 | Catriona M Fallon | Director | 9,355 | $1.29M | $0 | 9 | 2026-05-26 |
| 8 | Thomas A Bradley | Director | 8,074 | $1.11M | $285.2K | 8 | 2026-05-26 |
| 9 | Daina Middleton | Director | 7,509 | $1.03M | $0 | 6 | 2026-05-26 |
| 10 | Scott L Beiser | Director | 7,369 | $1.02M | $0 | 1 | 2026-05-26 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
PLMR Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)
Latest: 2026-09-21
? Form 144 Guide
Last 30d:
1 filing
· $476K notice value
· Last 90d:
6 filings
· $1.7M notice value
· 4 unique filers
· 50% under 10b5-1 plans
What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.
Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.
Top 90-day filers:
ARMSTRONG FAMILY TRUST U/A DTD 04/07/2011 (3, $1.4M) · Uchida T Christopher (1, $118K) · Herve Rodolphe (1, $91K) · Christianson Jon (1, $78K)
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | ARMSTRONG FAMILY TRUST U/A DTD 04/07/2011 | Director, Officer | 3,500 | $476.0K | 2026-09-21 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-21 | ARMSTRONG FAMILY TRUST U/A DTD 04/07/2011 | Director, Officer | 3,500 | $451.0K | 2026-08-21 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-14 | Christianson Jon | Officer | 612 | $78.5K | 2026-08-18 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-14 | Uchida T Christopher | Officer | 918 | $117.7K | 2026-08-18 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-28 | Herve Rodolphe | Officer | 646 | $91.0K | 2026-07-31 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-21 | ARMSTRONG FAMILY TRUST U/A DTD 04/07/2011 | Director, Officer | 3,500 | $490.4K | 2026-07-21 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-09 | Armstrong Mac | Officer, Director | 3,750 | $542.0K | 2026-07-15 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-02 | JON CHRISTIANSON | Officer | 12,863 | $1.72M | 2026-07-02 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-24 | Carter Timothy | Officer | 787 | $93.6K | 2026-06-28 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-22 | ARMSTRONG FAMILY TRUST U/A DTD 04/07/2011 | Director, Officer | 3,500 | $390.9K | 2026-06-22 | Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC … | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
Notice value is the aggregate market value the filer states they intend to sell — not a confirmed transaction. Compare to Insider Activity (Form 4) to see which planned sales actually executed. Market-wide feed: Planned sales (Form 144).
ETF Holders
119 ETFs hold PLMR
25 shown · $878.90M total exposure · 0.16% AUM-weighted avg weight
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.21% | $216.1M | $101.9B | 2026-10-15 |
| 2 | VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.00% | $99.0M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 3 | IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.12% | $95.6M | $75.2B | 2026-10-15 |
| 4 | AVUV Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF | Avantis | 0.30% | $92.2M | $31.2B | 2026-10-15 |
| 5 | VXF Vanguard Extended Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.04% | $36.7M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 6 | VB Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap ETF | Vanguard | 0.02% | $34.7M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 7 | IWO iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.25% | $34.2M | $13.4B | 2026-10-15 |
| 8 | IJT iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.44% | $33.6M | $7.4B | 2026-10-15 |
| 9 | SPSM State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 600™ Small Cap ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.21% | $33.0M | $15.7B | 2026-10-15 |
| 10 | DFAS Dimensional US Small Cap ETF | Dimensional | 0.09% | $29.7M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 11 | SLYG State Street® SPDR® S&P 600™ Small Cap Growth ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.45% | $21.2M | $4.8B | 2026-10-15 |
| 12 | CTEF Castellan Targeted Equity ETF | Nport | 3.40% | $20.8M | — | 2026-05-29 |
| 13 | VBK Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Growth ETF | Vanguard | 0.04% | $19.3M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 14 | VTWO Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF | Vanguard | 0.11% | $19.1M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 15 | SCHA Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF | Nport | 0.06% | $13.7M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 16 | DFAC Dimensional US Core Equity 2 ETF | Dimensional | 0.01% | $13.0M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 17 | DFMC Dimensional US Micro Cap ETF | Dimensional | 0.17% | $12.5M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 18 | VIOO Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF | Vanguard | 0.19% | $11.5M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 19 | KIE State Street® SPDR® S&P® Insurance ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 1.92% | $10.2M | $531.7M | 2026-10-15 |
| 20 | FYC First Trust Small Cap Growth AlphaDEX® Fund | First Trust | 0.60% | $7.8M | $1.3B | 2026-10-16 |
| 21 | AVSC Avantis U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF | Avantis | 0.18% | $5.7M | $3.1B | 2026-10-15 |
| 22 | VFH Vanguard Financials ETF | Vanguard | 0.04% | $5.4M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 23 | ITOT iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.01% | $4.9M | $96.0B | 2026-10-15 |
| 24 | DUSG Dimensional US Small Cap Growth ETF | Dimensional | 0.24% | $4.6M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 25 | DCOR Dimensional US Core Equity 1 ETF | Dimensional | 0.01% | $4.5M | — | 2026-10-15 |
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Trailing P/E
19.22
TTM Diluted EPS
$7.17
TTM Revenue
$875.97M
TTM Net Income
$197.07M
TTM Op. Cash Flow
$409.12M
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '25 | 2025-12-31 | $253.36M | $56.16M | $2.05 | $117.42M |
| Q3 '25 | 2025-09-30 | $244.66M | $51.45M | $1.87 | $83.64M |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-06-30 | $203.31M | $46.53M | $1.68 | $120.88M |
| Q1 '25 | 2025-03-31 | $174.63M | $42.92M | $1.57 | $87.18M |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-12-31 | $155.76M | $34.97M | $1.29 | $72.64M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-09-30 | $148.50M | $30.50M | $1.15 | $100.27M |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-06-30 | $131.07M | $25.73M | $1.00 | $55.13M |
| Q1 '24 | 2024-03-31 | $118.53M | $26.38M | $1.04 | $33.12M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-12-31 | $105.39M | $25.90M | $1.03 | $19.53M |
| Q3 '23 | 2023-09-30 | $90.94M | $18.43M | $0.73 | $70.63M |
| Q2 '23 | 2023-06-30 | $89.78M | $17.56M | $0.69 | $5.77M |
| Q1 '23 | 2023-03-31 | $89.20M | $17.31M | $0.68 | $17.44M |
Q4 2025 • period ending 2025-12-31 • filed 2026-02-24
Valuation
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
Price Multiples
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
Profitability & Yields
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
Reading the history chart
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
P/E
19.22
P/B
4.02
P/S
4.33
EV/EBITDA
14.02
EV/Sales
4.20
ROE
20.9%
ROA
6.5%
Div Yield
0.00%
FCF Yield
10.80%
Debt/Equity
0.00
Current Ratio
—
Market Cap
$3.79B
as of 2026-10-19
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
755.96K
SI % of Float
2.94%
Days to Cover
2.86
Short Vol Ratio
41.4%
Free Float
25.69M
Float %
97.6%
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-19 • Float 2026-08-07