Zacks Investment ResearchT3·20d ago
YPF YPF Sociedad Anonima American Depositary Shares (Each representing ten (10) Class D shares of Capital Stock)
XNYS
49.68
Delayed
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
YPF
$49.68
—
Key stats
$49.68
- 52-Week Range
- $24.00 – $57.87
- YTD
- +36.90%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 75.28
- Straddle Price
- $4.80
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 1.16
- Market Cap
- $19.9B
- Open
- $50.40
- Day Range
- $49.64 – $50.83
- Volume
- 62,820
- Prev Close
- $50.37
Fair Value
MODEL: LONG
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.15% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.81 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.19% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.21% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +21.9pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Quality Score | 0/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $51.93 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $50.97 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 16.7% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.0B |
Peers used for multiples: BMA, CEPU, GGAL, MELI, PAM, PBR, TGS, VIST
60-Day Conviction
90%
20-Day Fair Value
≈ by Nov 20, 2026
$50.10
α +0.9%
rank 45%
conviction
55%
40-Day Fair Value
≈ by Dec 21, 2026
$51.20
α +3.1%
rank 44%
conviction
86%
60-Day Fair Value
≈ by Jan 19, 2027
$51.57
α +3.8%
rank 42%
conviction
90%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/B | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $51.93 | 66% | stability 66% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $50.34 | 34% | 14 strikes · skew -0.28 |
As of 2026-10-22 · updated
Related
About
- Industry (SIC)
- PETROLEUM REFINING (2911) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $19.9B
- Employees
- 22,499
- List Date
- 1993-06-29
- CIK
- 0000904851
- Next Earnings
- 2026-11-06
- EPS Forecast
- $1.92 (2 est.)
- Homepage
- https://www.ypf.com
YPF SA is an Argentina-based integrated oil and gas company. The company operates through four business segments: Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies. The Upstream segment focuses on the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The Midstream and Downstream segment includes refining, transportation, and commercialization of crude oil, refined, and petrochemical products. The LNG and Integrated Gas segment is involved in natural gas transportation, processing, storage, and commercialization. The New Energies segment focuses on energy trans…
Summary
—
composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -19.25% | 6.93% | 37.20% | 4.60% | -11.50% | 9.64% | 4.60% |
| Feb | 7.98% | -3.89% | 0.17% | -1.09% | -8.91% | -8.93% | -2.44% |
| Mar | -1.20% | 11.03% | -9.26% | 11.05% | 2.19% | 30.75% | 7.43% |
| Apr | -10.85% | -16.04% | -4.55% | 11.87% | -16.06% | 1.92% | -5.62% |
| May | 25.00% | 8.70% | 0.18% | 5.12% | 21.00% | 22.20% | 13.70% |
| Jun | -4.10% | -25.91% | 31.77% | -8.96% | -9.16% | -16.93% | -5.55% |
| Jul | -5.01% | 11.75% | 0.00% | 3.10% | 6.65% | 17.45% | 5.66% |
| Aug | 22.01% | 50.41% | -1.63% | 22.35% | -7.97% | 1.02% | 14.37% |
| Sep | -7.54% | 10.50% | -13.79% | -8.77% | -20.05% | -4.44% | -7.35% |
| Oct | -10.06% | 12.02% | -18.07% | 13.11% | 54.56% | 0.80%* | 8.73% |
| Nov | -17.70% | 1.57% | 60.48% | 58.85% | -0.65% | -- | 20.51% |
| Dec | 4.09% | 9.67% | 6.44% | 5.69% | -0.74% | -- | 5.03% |
| Total | -23.99% | 78.82% | 86.49% | 168.81% | -9.09% | 54.37% | 59.23% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $50.77
SMA 50: $51.94
SMA 200: $45.95
Current: $49.66
EMA 12: $50.87
EMA 26: $51.32
MACD: -0.4493 | Signal: -0.0717
BEARISH
ADX (14): 14.71
RANGE
+DI: 15.16
−DI: 21.17
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 41.93
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 34.04
Stoch %D: 47.71
Williams %R: -92.94
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $52.64
BB Lower: $48.90
NEUTRAL
OBV: 125,519,529
Vol SMA 20: 944,332
Vol ROC: -94.67%
ATR: $1.66
True Range: $1.19
HV 20: 30.7%
HV 30: 32.0%
HV 60: 34.8%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-23T00:00:00 – 2026-10-21T00:00:00
AI Analysis
YPF Stock Analysis Report
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: NEUTRAL with Confidence Level: 6/10
YPF presents a conflicted technical and fundamental picture. The stock is caught in a range-bound consolidation with bearish momentum indicators contradicting positive news catalysts around Argentina's LNG infrastructure development. The company benefits from a major $24B LNG project gaining U.S. financing support (Oct 2026), yet technical momentum has deteriorated with MACD turning bearish and volume declining 39.71% below the 20-day average.
Investment Thesis: YPF is a defensive energy play (Beta 0.14) offering asymmetric risk/reward in a consolidation zone, supported by long-term LNG infrastructure catalysts, but near-term technical weakness and declining institutional interest suggest caution before earnings (Nov 6, 2026).
Recent News Sentiment Impact: News flow is predominantly positive and forward-looking (LNG financing support), which hasn't yet translated into price momentum. This disconnect suggests the market is pricing caution ahead of Q3 earnings.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction
| Timeframe | Assessment | Reasoning | |-----------|-----------|-----------| | Short-term (1-4 weeks) | BEARISH/RANGE | Price at $50.25 sits between SMA20 ($51.12) and lower Bollinger Band ($48.59). MACD histogram at -0.37 and RSI at 44.35 indicate lack of directional conviction. ADX at 14.51 confirms range-bound regime with weak trend strength. | | Medium-term (1-3 months) | NEUTRAL | Price above SMA50 ($51.89) by only $0.64 margin; above SMA200 ($45.80) with $4.45 buffer. Stock consolidating between these key MAs without established direction. | | Long-term (3-12 months) | BULLISH (conditional) | Price $4.45 above 200-day MA suggests long-term uptrend structure intact, though recent momentum loss raises questions about sustainability. LNG project tailwinds could reestablish uptrend. |
Support/Resistance Levels
| Level | Type | Significance | Distance from Current | |-------|------|--------------|----------------------| | $53.65 | Resistance | Upper Bollinger Band; recent range ceiling | +6.7% upside | | $51.89 | Resistance | SMA 50 - intermediate trend | +3.3% upside | | $51.12 | Dynamic Resistance | SMA 20 - near-term trend; Bollinger midline | +1.7% upside | | $50.25 | Current Price | — | 0% | | $48.59 | Support | Lower Bollinger Band | -3.3% downside | | $45.80 | Major Support | SMA 200 - long-term floor | -8.9% downside |
Critical Zone: $48.59-$51.12 represents the immediate trading range. Break below $48.59 threatens the long-term uptrend structure.
Momentum Signals
RSI (14): 44.35 — NEUTRAL
- Reading sits squarely in neutral zone (30-70), indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions
- No immediate momentum reversal signals present
- Slight bias toward weakness (closer to 30 than 70) but not yet oversold
MACD: -0.36 / Signal: 0.01 / Histogram: -0.37 — BEARISH CROSSOVER
- MACD line (-0.36) is below signal line (0.01), creating a bearish crossover pattern
- Negative histogram (-0.37) confirms downward momentum acceleration
- This is the most concerning technical signal; indicates recent loss of bullish momentum
- Watch for potential bullish recross if histogram turns positive
Stochastic Oscillators:
- %K (56.94) and %D (64.13) are both above 50, suggesting upward bias within the range
- %D above 80 threshold not breached, so overbought conditions not present
- Slight divergence between %K and %D may precede pullback
Bollinger Bands: NEUTRAL
- Price ($50.25) sits below middle band ($51.12) but well above lower band ($48.59)
- Band width of 9.90 indicates moderate volatility; not in squeeze or explosive mode
- Position suggests potential mean reversion toward middle band ($51.12)
- No breakout directional bias evident
Volume Analysis
Critical Finding: Volume Deterioration
- Volume Rate of Change: -39.71% — Recent volume is 39.71% below the 20-day average
- 20-day Volume SMA: 1,005,044 shares
- Implication: Declining institutional participation and retail interest; weakness in conviction behind current price level
On-Balance Volume (OBV): 124,035,047
- OBV at elevated absolute level but deteriorating rate of change suggests volume is not confirming upside moves
- This is a bearish divergence signal: price holding up while volume declining indicates potential weakness ahead
Interpretation: Institutional demand has waned despite positive LNG news. Low volume on any attempted rallies suggests resistance may be met.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary
| # | Headline | Date | Sentiment | Relevance | |---|----------|------|-----------|-----------| | 1 | YPF's $24B Argentina LNG Project Gains U.S. Financing Support | Oct 1, 2026 | POSITIVE | MAJOR CATALYST — Direct, material positive for YPF's crown jewel project | | 2 | Eni Builds Uruguay Offshore Presence | Sep 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | Sector activity; competitive positioning in Latin America | | 3 | Stanley Druckenmiller Portfolio Skips Megacap Tech | Aug 8, 2026 | POSITIVE | Shows macro investor interest in alternatives; energy thesis gaining credence | | 4 | Fracking Halliburton/Big Bet South of the Border | Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | Broader Latin American energy investment narrative | | 5 | Fund Added $4.6M to Latin American Energy Stock | Feb 2, 2026 | NEUTRAL | Institutional interest in LatAm energy (may or may not be YPF) | | 6 | Crown Point Acquires Interests in Argentina Concessions | Dec 1, 2025 | NEUTRAL | Competitive activity; Argentina hydrocarbon infrastructure themes |
Sentiment Assessment
Aggregate News Sentiment: MODERATELY POSITIVE (60-70%)
Supporting Factors:
- Oct 1 LNG financing headline is explicitly bullish and recent
- Broader LatAm energy narrative gaining institutional attention (Druckenmiller reference)
- Infrastructure project receiving geopolitical validation (U.S. financing support)
Contradictory Signals:
- Positive news not reflected in price momentum — stock has not rallied significantly on Oct 1 LNG announcement
- Volume declining despite positive catalysts suggests market skepticism or caution
- News flow concentrated on future project completion; execution risk remains high
Catalyst Identification
Immediate Catalysts (Next 30 days):
- Q3 2026 Earnings: November 6, 2026 — Critical test of current valuation; LNG project progress updates expected
- Options market pricing $5.07 expected move (31 DTE), suggesting market expects 10.1% volatility range by earnings
Near-term Catalysts (1-3 months):
- LNG project financing milestones and construction timelines
- Argentina macroeconomic developments and currency/inflation regime
- Competitive positioning vs Eni and other LatAm producers
Medium-term Catalysts (3-12 months):
- LNG project phase completion milestones
- Commodity price movements (oil/natural gas correlation)
- Latin American political/regulatory changes
Market Narrative vs Technical Signals
MAJOR CONFLICT IDENTIFIED:
| Signal Type | Message | Current Status | |------------|---------|-----------------| | News Narrative | LNG project gaining traction; institutional energy interest rising | BULLISH | | Technical Momentum | MACD bearish crossover; volume declining; price below key MAs | BEARISH | | Price Action | Stock flat-to-down despite
Generated
News
All YPF news →
Zacks Investment ResearchT3·1mo ago
The Motley FoolT3·2mo ago
Investing.comT3·6mo ago
The Motley FoolT3·8mo ago
BenzingaT3·10mo ago
GlobeNewswire Inc.T3·11mo ago
BenzingaT3·12mo ago
GlobeNewswire Inc.T3·17mo ago
BenzingaT3·22mo ago
Showing 1–10 of 50
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YPF Options Activity & IV Rank
YPF IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: 43.0%
7-DTE IV: —
Expected Move: $4.80
7-DTE Move: $4.80
Days to Exp: 29 (2026-11-20)
Options Flow
Call Volume: 237
Put Volume: 276
P/C Volume: 1.165
NEUTRAL
Call OI: 14,410
Put OI: 3,817
P/C OI: 0.265
Total OI: 18,227
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $2.58
ATM Put: $2.23
Call %: 5.2%
Put %: 4.5%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 6,739
Chain OI: 130,169
Last Updated: 10/22/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Dealer Positioning
TYPICAL γ
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 35th percentile of this name's own daily history, within its typical range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Gamma percentile
35%
vs own history
GEX tilt
+0.10
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.41
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.62
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt +0.41: the estimated dealer exposure leans positive, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
Charm tilt -0.62: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably as time passes and options approach expiry.
? What is this?
· 30 ATM contracts, 45k total OI
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
—
—
pts
EXTREME
No data
30 DTE / 10d
79%
+11.0
pts
EXTREME
ATM 42.5% / Wing 53.5%
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)75.3HighOct 22
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$4.80Oct 22
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: 0.1465
Alpha: 77.43%
Correlation: 0.0416
R-Squared: 0.2%
Stock Volatility: 44.8%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Notable investors who own YPF
5 of 37 tracked investors
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duquesne Family Office Family office Stanley Druckenmiller | $142.7M | #5 of 86 | -3.0% | 13F | |
| Oaktree Capital Asset manager Howard Marks | $45.1M | #39 of 130 | +11.8% | 13F | |
| Bridgewater Associates Hedge fund Ray Dalio | $15.1M | #259 of 997 | new | 13F | |
| Millennium Management Hedge fund Izzy Englander | $12.8M | #1411 of 3716 | -61.8% | 13F | |
| Citadel Hedge fund Ken Griffin | $9.6M | #1628 of 6285 | -75.0% | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
YPF Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
21 filers$341.68M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $101.98M | 29.85% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $50.83M | 14.88% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $46.52M | 13.61% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Walleye Trading LLC | $26.20M | 7.67% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | MASTERS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $22.73M | 6.65% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | PEAK6 LLC | $19.41M | 5.68% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $16.67M | 4.88% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $13.10M | 3.84% | 2026-06-30 |
| 9 | LMR Partners LLP | $12.31M | 3.60% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | Banco BTG Pactual S.A. | $9.09M | 2.66% | 2026-06-30 |
| 11 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $6.76M | 1.98% | 2026-06-30 |
| 12 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $6.75M | 1.98% | 2026-06-30 |
| 13 | Cubist Systematic Strategies, LLC | $2.12M | 0.62% | 2025-09-30 |
| 14 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $1.76M | 0.51% | 2026-06-30 |
| 15 | J. Goldman & Co LP | $1.37M | 0.40% | 2026-06-30 |
| 16 | Two Sigma Investments, LP Custodian | $1.06M | 0.31% | 2026-06-30 |
| 17 | Balyasny Asset Management L.P. | $1.04M | 0.30% | 2026-06-30 |
| 18 | Tidal Investments LLC | $913.95K | 0.27% | 2026-06-30 |
| 19 | Millennium Management LLC Custodian | $509.26K | 0.15% | 2026-06-30 |
| 20 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $332.08K | 0.10% | 2025-09-30 |
| 21 | Walleye Capital LLC | $209.16K | 0.06% | 2026-06-30 |
23 filers$248.57M notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $56.73M | 22.82% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $39.75M | 15.99% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $34.06M | 13.70% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Walleye Trading LLC | $29.62M | 11.92% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $18.79M | 7.56% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | PEAK6 LLC | $13.79M | 5.55% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | LMR Partners LLP | $11.38M | 4.58% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $9.64M | 3.88% | 2026-06-30 |
| 9 | Banco BTG Pactual S.A. | $9.09M | 3.66% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $7.40M | 2.98% | 2026-06-30 |
| 11 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $4.09M | 1.65% | 2026-06-30 |
| 12 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $3.89M | 1.57% | 2026-06-30 |
| 13 | Balyasny Asset Management L.P. | $3.16M | 1.27% | 2026-06-30 |
| 14 | Barclays PLC Custodian | $1.36M | 0.55% | 2026-06-30 |
| 15 | J. Goldman & Co LP | $1.36M | 0.55% | 2026-06-30 |
| 16 | Cubist Systematic Strategies, LLC | $1.03M | 0.41% | 2025-09-30 |
| 17 | Two Sigma Investments, LP Custodian | $991.25K | 0.40% | 2026-06-30 |
| 18 | TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL | $759.35K | 0.31% | 2026-06-30 |
| 19 | CAPITAL FUND MANAGEMENT S.A. | $604.75K | 0.24% | 2026-06-30 |
| 20 | Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P. | $454.70K | 0.18% | 2026-06-30 |
| 21 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $314.34K | 0.13% | 2025-09-30 |
| 22 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $218.26K | 0.09% | 2026-06-30 |
| 23 | Walleye Capital LLC | $100.03K | 0.04% | 2026-06-30 |
YPF Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-10-09Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Jose Daniel Alvarez | Director | Award (A) | +3,000 | $5.28 | $15.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-10-01 | Alejandro Luis Wyss | Technology Vice-Presidency | Grant (A) | +75,000 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Florencia Tiscornia | People & Culture VP | Grant (A) | +75,000 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Mauricio Alejandro Martin | Midstrm. & Downstrm. Exec. VP | Grant (A) | +87,551 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Andres Marcelo Scarone | New Energies Vice-Presidency | Grant (A) | +55,000 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Gustavo Maria Gallino | Infrastructure Vice-Presidency | Grant (A) | +70,000 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Maximiliano Pedro Westen | Strategy & New Bus. VP | Grant (A) | +70,000 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Juan Jose Mata | Admin. & Reporting VP | Grant (A) | +98,260 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Tanoira Santiago Martinez | LNG & Integr. Gas Exec. VP | Grant (A) | +115,000 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Lahore German Vito Fernandez | Legal Affairs Corp. VP | Grant (A) | +63,100 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Guillermo Andres Filiberto Pitrelli | Quality, Env. & Safety VP | Grant (A) | +55,000 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Matias Osvaldo Farina | Upstream Executive VP | Grant (A) | +125,000 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Carlos Alejandro Berto | Reserves Auditor | Grant (A) | +29,000 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Maria Martina Azcurra | Director | Grant (A) | +13,500 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-10-01 | Marcelo Gustavo Aldeco | Labor Relations VP | Grant (A) | +65,000 RSU | — | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
YPF Insider Holdings
23 insiders · @ $49.66
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horacio Daniel Marin | Board Chairman and CEO | 1,274,363 | $63.29M | $131.6K | 2 | 2026-09-02 |
| 2 | Tanoira Santiago Martinez | LNG & Integr. Gas Exec. VP | 754,224 | $37.46M | $0 | 2 | 2026-10-01 |
| 3 | Matias Osvaldo Farina | Upstream Executive VP | 747,541 | $37.13M | $401.3K | 3 | 2026-10-01 |
| 4 | Guillermo Andres Filiberto Pitrelli | Quality, Env. & Safety VP | 384,872 | $19.11M | $0 | 2 | 2026-10-01 |
| 5 | Florencia Tiscornia | People & Culture VP | 359,556 | $17.86M | $0 | 2 | 2026-10-01 |
| 6 | Lahore German Vito Fernandez | Legal Affairs Corp. VP | 325,324 | $16.16M | $0 | 2 | 2026-10-01 |
| 7 | Walter Ariel Actis | Supply Chain VP | 271,552 | $13.49M | $0 | 2 | 2026-10-01 |
| 8 | Pedro Luis Kearney | Finance Vice-Presidency | 232,721 | $11.56M | $0 | 2 | 2026-10-01 |
| 9 | Gustavo Maria Gallino | Infrastructure Vice-Presidency | 212,126 | $10.54M | $0 | 2 | 2026-10-01 |
| 10 | Maria Martina Azcurra | Director | 204,310 | $10.15M | $0 | 2 | 2026-10-01 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
ETF Holders
13 ETFs hold YPF
13 shown · $97.31M total exposure · 0.42% AUM-weighted avg weight
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARGT Global X MSCI Argentina ETF | Global X | 10.25% | $70.6M | — | 2026-10-21 |
| 2 | IDVO Amplify CWP International Enhanced Dividend Income ETF | Amplify | 1.74% | $24.6M | $1.4B | 2026-10-20 |
| 3 | JEMA JPMorgan ActiveBuilders Emerging Markets Equity ETF | JPMorgan | 0.06% | $939,854 | $1.7B | 2026-10-21 |
| 4 | OTGL OTG Latin America ETF | Nport | 2.46% | $691,644 | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | APIE ActivePassive International Equity ETF | Nport | 0.06% | $614,704 | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 6 | FFEM Fidelity Fundamental Emerging Markets ETF | Fidelity | 0.53% | $329,207 | $62.5M | 2026-10-20 |
| 7 | RPAR RPAR Risk Parity ETF | Nport | 0.04% | $236,444 | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | RISE Pictet Emerging Markets Rising Economies ETF | Nport | 1.01% | $213,482 | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 9 | FFGX Fidelity Fundamental Global ex-U.S. ETF | Fidelity | 0.18% | $91,556 | $52.0M | 2026-10-20 |
| 10 | JADE JPMorgan Active Developing Markets Equity ETF | JPMorgan | 0.15% | $45,232 | $30.1M | 2026-10-21 |
| 11 | UPAR UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF | Nport | 0.04% | $26,554 | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 12 | DRKY VistaShares Target 15 DRUKMacro Distribution ETF | Nport | 0.04% | $7,040 | — | 2026-07-31 |
| 13 | FTLS First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | First Trust | -0.04% | $-1,059,336 | $2.6B | 2026-10-20 |
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Trailing P/E
—
TTM Diluted EPS
—
TTM Revenue
—
TTM Net Income
—
TTM Op. Cash Flow
—
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
5.09M
SI % of Float
1.30%
Days to Cover
4.37
Short Vol Ratio
50.1%
Free Float
—
Float %
—
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-21