Iran leadership change by...?
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noOdds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
All outcomes
14| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 28% | -1.0 | $1K | $1.1M |
| December 31 | 14% | -1.0 | $25K | $1.1M |
| November 30 | 8% | -0.5 | $36K | $1.1M |
| April 30 | 0% | -0.5 | $0 | $1.1M |
| May 31 | 0% | -0.7 | $0 | $1.1M |
| June 30 | 0% | — | $0 | $1.1M |
| March 31 | 0% | — | $0 | $1.1M |
| March 13 | 0% | — | $0 | $1.1M |
| September 30 | 0% | — | $0 | $1.1M |
| July 31 | 0% | — | $0 | $1.1M |
| August 31 | 0% | — | $0 | $1.1M |
| August 15 | 0% | — | $0 | $1.1M |
| August 22 | 0% | — | $0 | $1.1M |
| October 31 | 0% | -0.5 | $0 | $1.1M |
How it settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.