polymarket Politics

Iran leadership change by March 31?

March 31
Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume Open interest $1.0M Event Iran leadership change by...?
0%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 14 days · High 26% · Low 0% · 7d -99.1pp
26%0%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

Trade on Polymarket

Open on Polymarket
Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.